季節調整値、ARIMAおよび予測値

20140911_01

  Reading input spec file from lev-jb.spc
  Reading data from C:\X12ARIMA\lev-jb.dat

1

               U. S. Department of Commerce, U. S. Census Bureau

                 X-12-ARIMA monthly seasonal adjustment Method,
                         Release Version 0.3  Build 192



           This method modifies the X-11 variant of Census Method II
           by J. Shiskin A.H. Young and J.C. Musgrave of February, 1967.
          and the X-11-ARIMA program based on the methodological research
           developed by Estela Bee Dagum, Chief of the Seasonal Adjustment
            and Time Series Staff of Statistics Canada, September, 1979.

            This version of X-12-ARIMA includes an automatic ARIMA model
          selection procedure based largely on the procedure of Gomez and
                  Maravall (1998) as implemented in TRAMO (1996).

      Primary Programmers: Brian Monsell, Mark Otto


     Series Title- Index of Consumption Expenditure Level
     Series Name- lev-jb
     Sep 11, 2014  17.13.04 

        -Period covered-  1st month,1981 to  7th month,2014
        -Type of run - auto-mode seasonal adjustment

        -Sigma limits for graduating extreme values are 1.5 and 2.5 .
        -3x3 moving average used in section 1 of each iteration, 
         3x5 moving average in section 2 of iterations B and C,
         moving average for final seasonal factors chosen by Global MSR.
        -Spectral plots generated for selected series
        -Spectral plots generated for series starting in 2006.Aug

 FILE SAVE REQUESTS (* indicates file exists and will be overwritten)
  lev-jb.d11* final seasonally adjusted data
  lev-jb.out* program output file
  lev-jb.err* program error file
  lev-jb.udg* seasonal adjustment and model diagnostics file
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   1, SERIES lev-jb

     Contents of spc file lev-jb.spc

 Line #
 ------
      1: #スペックファイルはANSIコードで作成。UTF-8では日本語コメントが文字化けする
      2:  
      3: #-01 原系列の読込
      4: series{
      5: title="Index of Consumption Expenditure Level" #要ダブルクォート
      6: file="C:\X12ARIMA\lev-jb.dat" #要ダブルクォート
      7: period=12
      8: start=1981.1
      9: span=(1981.1,2014.7)
     10: decimals=1
     11: }
     12: 	
     13: transform{
     14: function=auto
     15: #log 対数変換を指定
     16: #auto 対数変換の要否を自動選択 AIC(結果数値が小さい方)で判断
     17: #引用 有田帝馬(2012).『入門季節調整』.東洋経済新報社.pp255
     18: }
     19:  
     20: #-02 事前調整 説明(回帰)変数(異常値、曜日変動、休日変動等)とARIMAモデルの検討
     21: #--02-01 説明(回帰)変数の検討
     22: regression{
     23: variables=(
     24: #rp2004.1-2005.12
     25: #rp2008.1-2009.12
     26: #ls2012.1
     27: #td
     28: )
     29:  
     30: #外れ値
     31: #ao 加法的外れ値 1時点のみの急激な変化。後は元の水準に回復
     32: #tc 減衰的外れ値 1時点での急激な変化な後、指数的に元の水準に回復
     33: #ls 水準変化 1時点で水準変化が発生
     34: #rp 傾斜的水準変化 一定期間の間に、水準変化が発生
     35: 	
     36: #曜日効果
     37: #td 各曜日数の影響(うるう年調整を含む)
     38: #tdnolpyear 各曜日数の影響(うるう年調整を除く)
     39: #td1coef 平日数の影響(うるう年調整を含む)
     40: #td1nolpyear 平日数の影響(うるう年調整を除く)
     41: 	
     42: #期間長
     43: #lom 月の長さ
     44: #loq 四半期の長さ
     45: #lpyear うるう年の長さ
     46:  
     47: #以下はユーザー定義変数
     48: #file="C:\X12ARIMA\Japan_holiday_198001-201512.dat" #要ダブルクォート
     49: #user=(Japan_holiday)
     50: #usertype=holiday
     51: #holiday 休日
     52: #td 曜日変化
     53: #ao,tc,ls,rp
     54: #start=1980.1
     55: #centeruser=mean
     56: #meanを指定することで、ユーザー定義変数を平均値からの差に変換する
     57: #引用 有田帝馬(2012).『入門季節調整』.東洋経済新報社.pp255
     58: }
     59:  
     60: outlier{#外れ値の自動検出
     61: types=all
     62: #ao,tc,ls,all
     63: }
     64:  
     65: #--02-02 ARIMAモデルの検討
     66: #---02-02-01 コレログラムによる階差、次数の決定
     67: #identify{#原系列とその階差系列のACFとPACF
     68: #diff=(0,1)
     69: #sdiff=(0,1)
     70: #diff 通常階差の次数を指定
     71: #sdiff 季節階差の次数を指定
     72: #引用 有田帝馬(2012).『入門季節調整』.東洋経済新報社.pp255
     73: #}
     74: #arima{model=(1 1 0)(1 1 1)}
     75:  
     76: #---02-02-02 自動選択によるARIMAモデルの決定
     77: automdl{}
     78: #pickmdl{}
     79:  
     80: #-03 Reg-ARIMAモデルの推計
     81: estimate{}
     82: #check{print=all}
     83:  
     84: #-04 X-11による季節調整
     85: x11{
     86: save=(d11)
     87: #d10 季節変動成分
     88: #d11 季節調整値
     89: #d12 トレンドサイクル成分
     90: #d13 不規則変動成分
     91: #d16 季節要素(季節変動成分と曜日・休日変動成分)
     92: #d18 曜日・休日変動成分
     93: #引用 有田帝馬(2012).『入門季節調整』.東洋経済新報社.pp255
     94: }
     95:  
     96: #-05 出力
     97: forecast{
     98: maxlead=12
     99: #maxback=12
    100: #デフォルト12期、最大60期
    101: #予測値の期間はユーザー定義変数の期間内とする
    102: }


 Likelihood statistics for model fit to untransformed series.

 Likelihood Statistics
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
 Number of observations (nobs)                                  403
 Effective number of observations (nefobs)                      390
 Number of parameters estimated (np)                              3
 Log likelihood (L)                                       -836.4024
 AIC                                                      1678.8048 
 AICC (F-corrected-AIC)                                   1678.8669 
 Hannan Quinn                                             1683.5214 
 BIC                                                      1690.7032 
 ------------------------------------------------------------------


 Likelihood statistics for model fit to log transformed series.

 Likelihood Statistics
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
 Number of observations (nobs)                                  403
 Effective number of observations (nefobs)                      390
 Number of parameters estimated (np)                              3
 Log likelihood                                            981.2842
 Transformation Adjustment                               -1804.5154
 Adjusted Log likelihood (L)                              -823.2312
 AIC                                                      1652.4625 
 AICC (F-corrected-AIC)                                   1652.5247 
 Hannan Quinn                                             1657.1791 
 BIC                                                      1664.3609 
 ------------------------------------------------------------------


   *****   AICC (with aicdiff=-2.00) prefers log transformation   *****
   *****   Multiplicative seasonal adjustment will be performed.   ****



        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   2, SERIES lev-jb

 A 1  Time series data (for the span analyzed)
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec        TOTAL  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         86.1     87.5     98.1     96.1     85.9     89.1
               94.1     90.3     85.4     85.1     88.0    127.9        1113.6
 
  1982         86.9     90.4    101.7     97.2     89.3     93.7
               97.1     92.7     86.8     89.9     90.4    130.4        1146.5
 
  1983         90.3     91.1    101.5     98.9     88.5     92.3
               97.7     93.4     87.2     90.3     91.6    132.5        1155.3
 
  1984         87.8     92.1    100.8    100.2     90.1     93.0
               98.6     93.5     90.2     91.5     91.6    132.6        1162.0
 
  1985         90.7     92.3    104.2    102.1     90.6     93.3
               99.1     93.8     90.4     92.0     93.4    132.7        1174.6
 
  1986         91.1     92.6    103.1    102.6     92.0     95.2
              100.8     97.1     91.2     94.0     94.7    130.5        1184.9
 
  1987         92.4     95.0    105.6    103.5     94.7     95.9
              103.1     98.3     92.9     96.3     96.9    133.8        1208.4
 
  1988         96.5     97.8    108.6    107.2     98.9     98.2
              107.1    101.5     96.8     97.6     98.3    137.6        1246.1
 
  1989         97.6     99.0    115.4    106.6     96.3     99.2
              107.1    100.0     97.5     99.1    101.6    140.9        1260.3
 
  1990        100.4    101.8    112.6    110.9    100.1    101.6
              109.0    102.4     99.2     99.7     98.6    140.3        1276.6
 
  1991        101.3    102.4    114.6    111.0    100.7    106.9
              111.5    106.0    101.2    102.8    102.7    139.8        1300.9
 
  1992        103.6    105.4    115.4    110.7    102.8    103.5
              111.9    105.8    102.4    102.4    103.1    138.8        1305.8
 
  1993        101.8    106.3    117.6    113.2    101.6    102.9
              109.8    105.0    101.0    102.9    104.8    139.7        1306.6
 
  1994        104.6    105.7    112.1    112.4     99.9    101.9
              110.1    104.8    103.2    102.6    102.2    135.4        1294.9
 
  1995        100.7    103.4    112.0    112.8    101.1    102.0
              109.5    105.3    103.7    102.2    101.1    135.8        1289.6
 
  1996        105.0    103.8    114.2    113.7    100.7    106.5
              106.0    106.0     99.9    101.0    103.5    135.7        1296.0
 
  1997        105.3    108.1    121.3    112.4     98.8    101.3
              109.2    105.8    102.6    102.2    101.2    129.1        1297.3
 
  1998        100.9    103.2    114.3    110.4     98.1    100.6
              105.8    103.3    101.1    101.4    102.5    128.6        1270.2
 
  1999        102.6     99.8    112.4    109.8    100.7    100.6
              106.9    103.4     98.2     99.2     99.7    123.3        1256.6
 
  2000         99.6    100.3    107.9    111.2     99.0     99.0
              105.5     99.9     98.8     99.9     99.4    126.6        1247.1
 
  2001        100.0    105.7    110.7    107.0     97.5     96.3
              102.9     98.5     95.8     99.8    100.2    118.6        1233.0
 
  2002        100.8    100.5    109.5    109.3     96.1     98.5
              104.4     98.5    100.9    100.8     98.8    117.9        1236.0
 
  2003         99.4    100.1    107.3    108.1     95.0    100.1
              100.7    100.4     98.5     99.6    100.0    118.2        1227.4
 
  2004        101.0    102.0    107.7    112.5     99.8     97.2
              101.0    100.4     97.9     97.9     98.3    114.8        1230.5
 
  2005        101.0    101.2    106.8    109.7     98.7     98.4
               99.1    101.3     99.6    100.3     98.4    116.2        1230.7
 
  2006         98.8    100.4    105.2    108.3     97.4     96.8
               97.8     97.1     93.8     98.2     97.8    114.2        1205.8
 
  2007         99.6    101.9    105.5    109.6     97.9     96.9
               97.7     98.8     96.9     98.8     97.4    116.7        1217.7
 
  2008        103.4     98.6    104.0    106.8     95.0     95.5
               97.5     94.9     94.8     95.1     97.0    111.6        1194.2
 
  2009         97.3     98.7    103.9    105.7     95.4     95.8
               95.9     97.4     95.9     96.9     99.2    113.9        1196.0
 
  2010         98.5     97.7    107.7    104.4     94.5     96.5
               97.0     99.6     96.4     97.0     99.4    111.0        1199.7
 
  2011         98.3     98.2     99.0    102.4     93.5     93.2
               95.0     95.5     94.5     96.7     96.3    111.7        1174.3
 
  2012         96.2     97.1    102.5    105.2     97.3     94.8
               96.6     97.4     93.7     96.6     96.6    111.0        1185.0
 
  2013         98.5    101.4    107.9    106.9     95.8     94.5
               96.8     96.0     97.5     97.6     96.9    112.2        1202.0
 
  2014        100.0     99.3    115.9    102.1     88.3     91.8
               91.3                                                      688.7
 
  AVGE         98.2     99.4    108.4    107.1     96.2     97.7
              102.2     99.5     96.5     97.8     98.2    126.1

  Table Total-     41214.30   Mean-     102.27   Std. Dev.-       9.68
                              Min -      85.10        Max -     140.90
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   3, SERIES lev-jb
                        Automatic ARIMA Model Selection

                    Procedure based closely on TRAMO method 
                         of Gomez and Maravall (2000)
              "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series",
                            A Course in Time Series
                  (Edited by D. Pena, G. C. Tiao, R. S. Tsay),
                         New York : J. Wiley and Sons


     Maximum order for regular ARMA parameters :   2
     Maximum order for seasonal ARMA parameters :   1
     Maximum order for regular differencing :   2
     Maximum order for seasonal differencing :   1

 NOTE: Unable to test LS2014.Apr due to regression matrix singularity.
       The effect of this outlier is already accounted for by other regressors 
       (usually user-specified or previously identified outliers).

   Results of Unit Root Test for identifying orders of differencing:
     Regular difference order :   1
     Seasonal difference order :   1

     Mean is not significant.

  Automatic model choice : (0 1 1)(0 1 1)

 NOTE: Unable to test LS2014.Apr due to regression matrix singularity.
       The effect of this outlier is already accounted for by other regressors 
       (usually user-specified or previously identified outliers).

  Final automatic model choice : (3 1 1)(0 1 1)
   End of automatic model selection procedure.

 Average absolute percentage error in within-sample forecasts:
  Last year:   1.29      Last-1 year:   1.31     Last-2 year:   1.05
  Last three years:    1.22

 Estimation converged in    6 ARMA iterations,   63 function evaluations.

 Regression Model
 --------------------------------------------------------------------
                               Parameter        Standard
   Variable                     Estimate           Error      t-value
 --------------------------------------------------------------------
   Automatically Identified Outliers
     AO1997.Mar                   0.0586         0.01406         4.17
     TC2011.Mar                  -0.0542         0.01259        -4.31
     AO2014.Mar                   0.1434         0.01763         8.14
     LS2014.Mar                  -0.0574         0.01195        -4.80
 --------------------------------------------------------------------


 ARIMA Model:  (3 1 1)(0 1 1)
   Nonseasonal differences: 1
   Seasonal differences:    1
                                              Standard
 Parameter                    Estimate          Errors
 -----------------------------------------------------
 Nonseasonal AR                                    
   Lag  1                       0.1311         0.06053
   Lag  2                       0.1059         0.05826
   Lag  3                       0.0941         0.05639

 Nonseasonal MA                                    
   Lag  1                       0.9150         0.03242

 Seasonal MA                                       
   Lag 12                       0.5290         0.04503

 Variance                       0.28735E-03
 SE of Var                      0.20577E-04
 -----------------------------------------------------

 Likelihood Statistics
 ------------------------------------------------------------------
 Number of observations (nobs)                                  403
 Effective number of observations (nefobs)                      390
 Number of parameters estimated (np)                             10
 Log likelihood                                           1034.0161
 Transformation Adjustment                               -1804.5154
 Adjusted Log likelihood (L)                              -770.4994
 AIC                                                      1560.9987 
 AICC (F-corrected-AIC)                                   1561.5792 
 Hannan Quinn                                             1576.7208 
 BIC                                                      1600.6602 
 ------------------------------------------------------------------


 FORECASTING
  Origin  2014.Jul
  Number        12

  Forecasts and Standard Errors of the Transformed Data
   ------------------------------
                         Standard
       Date   Forecast      Error
   ------------------------------
   2014.Aug       4.52      0.018
   2014.Sep       4.51      0.018
   2014.Oct       4.52      0.019
   2014.Nov       4.52      0.019
   2014.Dec       4.66      0.020
   2015.Jan       4.54      0.020
   2015.Feb       4.55      0.020
   2015.Mar       4.61      0.021
   2015.Apr       4.62      0.019
   2015.May       4.50      0.019
   2015.Jun       4.51      0.019
   2015.Jul       4.52      0.019
   ------------------------------

  Confidence intervals with coverage probability (0.95000)
  On the Original Scale
   ---------------------------------------
       Date      Lower  Forecast     Upper
   ---------------------------------------
   2014.Aug      88.42     91.53     94.76
   2014.Sep      87.89     91.09     94.40
   2014.Oct      88.72     92.05     95.50
   2014.Nov      88.52     91.95     95.51
   2014.Dec     102.02    106.03    110.19
   2015.Jan      90.14     93.72     97.45
   2015.Feb      90.53     94.16     97.94
   2015.Mar      96.38    100.48    104.75
   2015.Apr      97.76    101.48    105.34
   2015.May      86.57     89.89     93.33
   2015.Jun      87.55     90.93     94.44
   2015.Jul      88.18     91.60     95.16
   ---------------------------------------
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   4, SERIES lev-jb
  
 A 8  RegARIMA combined outlier component
      (AO, LS, TC outliers included)
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1982        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1983        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1984        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1985        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1986        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1987        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1988        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1989        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1990        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1991        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1992        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1993        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1994        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1995        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1996        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1997        105.9    105.9    112.3    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         106.4
 
  1998        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1999        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2000        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2001        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2002        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2003        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2004        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2005        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2006        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2007        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2008        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2009        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2010        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2011        105.9    105.9    100.3    102.0    103.1    104.0
              104.5    104.9    105.2    105.4    105.6    105.7         104.4
 
  2012        105.7    105.8    105.8    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2013        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2014        105.9    105.9    115.4    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0                                                      103.9
 
  AVGE        105.9    105.9    106.2    105.6    105.7    105.7
              105.7    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9

  Table Total-     42655.22   Mean-     105.84   Std. Dev.-       5.91
                              Min -     100.00        Max -     115.42

 A 8.A  RegARIMA outlier component
  From  2014.Aug to 2015.Jul
  Observations         12
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2014                                                          
                       100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2015        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0                                                      100.0
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   5, SERIES lev-jb

 A 8.AO  RegARIMA AO outlier component
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1982        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1983        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1984        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1985        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1986        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1987        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1988        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1989        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1990        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1991        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1992        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1993        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1994        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1995        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1996        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1997        100.0    100.0    106.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.5
 
  1998        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1999        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2000        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2001        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2002        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2003        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2004        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2005        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2006        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2007        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2008        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2009        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2010        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2011        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2012        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2013        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2014        100.0    100.0    115.4    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0                                                      102.2
 
  AVGE        100.0    100.0    100.6    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0

  Table Total-     40321.46   Mean-     100.05   Std. Dev.-       0.83
                              Min -     100.00        Max -     115.42
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   6, SERIES lev-jb

 A 8.LS  RegARIMA level change outlier component
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1982        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1983        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1984        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1985        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1986        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1987        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1988        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1989        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1990        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1991        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1992        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1993        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1994        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1995        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1996        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1997        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1998        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  1999        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2000        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2001        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2002        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2003        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2004        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2005        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2006        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2007        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2008        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2009        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2010        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2011        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2012        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2013        105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9
              105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9         105.9
 
  2014        105.9    105.9    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0                                                      101.7
 
  AVGE        105.9    105.9    105.7    105.7    105.7    105.7
              105.7    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9    105.9

  Table Total-     42652.23   Mean-     105.84   Std. Dev.-       5.87
                              Min -     100.00        Max -     105.91
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   7, SERIES lev-jb

 A 8.TC  RegARIMA temporary change outlier component
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1982        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1983        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1984        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1985        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1986        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1987        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1988        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1989        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1990        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1991        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1992        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1993        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1994        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1995        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1996        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1997        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1998        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  1999        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2000        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2001        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2002        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2003        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2004        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2005        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2006        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2007        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2008        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2009        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2010        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2011        100.0    100.0     94.7     96.3     97.4     98.2
               98.7     99.1     99.4     99.6     99.7     99.8          98.6
 
  2012         99.8     99.9     99.9     99.9    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2013        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2014        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0                                                      100.0
 
  AVGE        100.0    100.0     99.8     99.9     99.9     99.9
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0

  Table Total-     40282.22   Mean-      99.96   Std. Dev.-       0.37
                              Min -      94.72        Max -     100.00

 A 8.TC.A  RegARIMA temporary change outlier component
  From  2014.Aug to 2015.Jul
  Observations         12
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2014                                                          
                       100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0         100.0
 
  2015        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0                                                      100.0
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   8, SERIES lev-jb
  
 B 1  Original series (prior adjusted)
      (adjusted for regARIMA factors)
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec        TOTAL  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         81.3     82.6     92.6     90.7     81.1     84.1
               88.8     85.3     80.6     80.4     83.1    120.8        1051.5
 
  1982         82.1     85.4     96.0     91.8     84.3     88.5
               91.7     87.5     82.0     84.9     85.4    123.1        1082.5
 
  1983         85.3     86.0     95.8     93.4     83.6     87.1
               92.2     88.2     82.3     85.3     86.5    125.1        1090.8
 
  1984         82.9     87.0     95.2     94.6     85.1     87.8
               93.1     88.3     85.2     86.4     86.5    125.2        1097.2
 
  1985         85.6     87.1     98.4     96.4     85.5     88.1
               93.6     88.6     85.4     86.9     88.2    125.3        1109.1
 
  1986         86.0     87.4     97.3     96.9     86.9     89.9
               95.2     91.7     86.1     88.8     89.4    123.2        1118.8
 
  1987         87.2     89.7     99.7     97.7     89.4     90.5
               97.3     92.8     87.7     90.9     91.5    126.3        1141.0
 
  1988         91.1     92.3    102.5    101.2     93.4     92.7
              101.1     95.8     91.4     92.2     92.8    129.9        1176.6
 
  1989         92.2     93.5    109.0    100.7     90.9     93.7
              101.1     94.4     92.1     93.6     95.9    133.0        1190.0
 
  1990         94.8     96.1    106.3    104.7     94.5     95.9
              102.9     96.7     93.7     94.1     93.1    132.5        1205.4
 
  1991         95.6     96.7    108.2    104.8     95.1    100.9
              105.3    100.1     95.6     97.1     97.0    132.0        1228.3
 
  1992         97.8     99.5    109.0    104.5     97.1     97.7
              105.7     99.9     96.7     96.7     97.3    131.1        1232.9
 
  1993         96.1    100.4    111.0    106.9     95.9     97.2
              103.7     99.1     95.4     97.2     99.0    131.9        1233.7
 
  1994         98.8     99.8    105.8    106.1     94.3     96.2
              104.0     99.0     97.4     96.9     96.5    127.8        1222.6
 
  1995         95.1     97.6    105.8    106.5     95.5     96.3
              103.4     99.4     97.9     96.5     95.5    128.2        1217.6
 
  1996         99.1     98.0    107.8    107.4     95.1    100.6
              100.1    100.1     94.3     95.4     97.7    128.1        1223.7
 
  1997         99.4    102.1    108.0    106.1     93.3     95.6
              103.1     99.9     96.9     96.5     95.6    121.9        1218.4
 
  1998         95.3     97.4    107.9    104.2     92.6     95.0
               99.9     97.5     95.5     95.7     96.8    121.4        1199.3
 
  1999         96.9     94.2    106.1    103.7     95.1     95.0
              100.9     97.6     92.7     93.7     94.1    116.4        1186.5
 
  2000         94.0     94.7    101.9    105.0     93.5     93.5
               99.6     94.3     93.3     94.3     93.9    119.5        1177.5
 
  2001         94.4     99.8    104.5    101.0     92.1     90.9
               97.2     93.0     90.5     94.2     94.6    112.0        1164.2
 
  2002         95.2     94.9    103.4    103.2     90.7     93.0
               98.6     93.0     95.3     95.2     93.3    111.3        1167.0
 
  2003         93.9     94.5    101.3    102.1     89.7     94.5
               95.1     94.8     93.0     94.0     94.4    111.6        1158.9
 
  2004         95.4     96.3    101.7    106.2     94.2     91.8
               95.4     94.8     92.4     92.4     92.8    108.4        1161.8
 
  2005         95.4     95.6    100.8    103.6     93.2     92.9
               93.6     95.6     94.0     94.7     92.9    109.7        1162.0
 
  2006         93.3     94.8     99.3    102.3     92.0     91.4
               92.3     91.7     88.6     92.7     92.3    107.8        1138.5
 
  2007         94.0     96.2     99.6    103.5     92.4     91.5
               92.2     93.3     91.5     93.3     92.0    110.2        1149.7
 
  2008         97.6     93.1     98.2    100.8     89.7     90.2
               92.1     89.6     89.5     89.8     91.6    105.4        1127.6
 
  2009         91.9     93.2     98.1     99.8     90.1     90.5
               90.5     92.0     90.5     91.5     93.7    107.5        1129.3
 
  2010         93.0     92.2    101.7     98.6     89.2     91.1
               91.6     94.0     91.0     91.6     93.9    104.8        1132.8
 
  2011         92.8     92.7     98.7    100.4     90.7     89.7
               90.9     91.0     89.8     91.7     91.2    105.7        1125.2
 
  2012         91.0     91.8     96.9     99.4     91.9     89.5
               91.2     92.0     88.5     91.2     91.2    104.8        1119.3
 
  2013         93.0     95.7    101.9    100.9     90.5     89.2
               91.4     90.6     92.1     92.2     91.5    105.9        1134.9
 
  2014         94.4     93.8    100.4    102.1     88.3     91.8
               91.3                                                      662.1
 
  AVGE         92.7     93.9    102.1    101.4     91.1     92.5
               96.6     94.0     91.2     92.4     92.8    119.0

  Table Total-     38936.65   Mean-      96.62   Std. Dev.-       9.05
                              Min -      80.35        Max -     133.04

 B 1.A  Forecasts of (prior adjusted) original series
  From  2014.Aug to 2015.Jul
  Observations         12
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec        TOTAL  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2014                                                          
                        91.5     91.1     92.1     91.9    106.0         472.6
 
  2015         93.7     94.2    100.5    101.5     89.9     90.9
               91.6                                                      662.3
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE   9, SERIES lev-jb

 C 17  Final weights for irregular component
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
  Lower sigma limit    1.50
  Upper sigma limit    2.50
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         S.D.  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0           0.6
 
  1982        100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0    100.0      0.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.6
 
  1983         12.5    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0     49.4    100.0    100.0     43.8           0.6
 
  1984          0.0    100.0     80.7    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0     89.9    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.6
 
  1985        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.6
 
  1986        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0           0.6
 
  1987        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0           0.6
 
  1988        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0     77.7
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  1989        100.0    100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0     85.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  1990        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0    100.0           0.7
 
  1991        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  1992        100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  1993          0.0    100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0     75.8    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  1994        100.0    100.0     34.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.8
 
  1995        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0     33.1    100.0           0.8
 
  1996         67.5    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0
                0.0    100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.9
 
  1997        100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0     88.3    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.9
 
  1998        100.0    100.0     24.5    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           1.0
 
  1999        100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           1.0
 
  2000        100.0    100.0     86.3     33.1    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0           1.0
 
  2001        100.0      0.0    100.0     87.4    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           1.0
 
  2002        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0     64.6    100.0
              100.0     12.5     49.1    100.0    100.0    100.0           1.0
 
  2003        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0     26.0      0.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.9
 
  2004        100.0    100.0    100.0     52.6    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.8
 
  2005        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
               36.6    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  2006        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0      0.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  2007        100.0     66.5    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0     56.6           0.7
 
  2008          0.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
               44.1     48.6    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.8
 
  2009        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  2010        100.0    100.0      0.0      0.0     86.2    100.0
              100.0     20.1    100.0    100.0     88.0     64.2           0.7
 
  2011        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.8
 
  2012        100.0    100.0     76.1    100.0      0.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0     71.3    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.8
 
  2013        100.0     10.7     69.5    100.0    100.0    100.0
              100.0    100.0     35.3    100.0    100.0    100.0           0.7
 
  2014        100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      0.0     61.6
              100.0                                                        0.7
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  10, SERIES lev-jb

 D 8  Final unmodified SI ratios
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         93.1     94.7    106.1    103.9     92.8     96.1
              101.2     96.9     91.5     91.0     93.9    136.1          99.8
 
  1982         92.1     95.3    106.7    101.6     93.2     97.7
              101.4     96.9     90.7     93.9     94.3    136.0         100.0
 
  1983         94.2     95.1    106.1    103.4     92.4     96.2
              101.7     97.0     90.5     93.6     94.9    137.2         100.2
 
  1984         91.0     95.4    104.4    103.7     93.1     95.9
              101.5     96.1     92.7     94.0     94.0    135.9          99.8
 
  1985         92.8     94.3    106.3    104.2     92.6     95.6
              101.6     96.1     92.5     94.0     95.3    135.3         100.0
 
  1986         92.8     94.3    104.9    104.1     93.1     96.0
              101.4     97.6     91.6     94.4     95.1    131.0          99.7
 
  1987         92.6     95.1    105.4    103.1     94.1     95.1
              102.1     97.2     91.6     94.7     94.9    130.6          99.7
 
  1988         93.9     94.9    105.2    103.6     95.3     94.4
              102.7     97.3     92.8     93.7     94.6    132.5         100.1
 
  1989         94.1     95.5    111.3    102.8     92.9     95.6
              102.9     95.6     92.7     93.8     95.7    132.3         100.4
 
  1990         94.1     95.3    105.3    103.8     93.7     95.2
              102.4     96.3     93.3     93.6     92.4    131.2          99.7
 
  1991         94.6     95.5    106.6    103.0     93.1     98.5
              102.5     97.3     92.9     94.5     94.5    128.6         100.1
 
  1992         95.3     96.8    105.8    101.3     94.0     94.6
              102.4     96.9     94.0     94.1     94.9    127.6          99.8
 
  1993         93.5     97.5    107.8    103.8     93.4     94.9
              101.5     97.1     93.2     94.6     96.0    127.7         100.1
 
  1994         95.7     97.1    103.4    104.1     92.7     94.5
              101.9     96.9     95.5     95.2     95.3    126.7          99.9
 
  1995         94.4     96.9    104.6    104.9     93.7     94.4
              101.3     97.4     96.0     94.6     93.6    125.6          99.8
 
  1996         97.1     95.9    105.4    104.9     92.9     98.5
               98.3     98.4     92.8     93.6     95.6    124.9          99.9
 
  1997         96.8     99.5    105.7    104.3     92.0     94.4
              101.7     98.5     95.7     95.7     95.2    121.9         100.1
 
  1998         95.5     97.7    108.2    104.6     93.0     95.5
              100.5     97.9     95.5     95.5     96.3    120.8         100.1
 
  1999         96.5     94.0    106.0    103.6     95.1     95.1
              101.5     98.6     94.1     95.6     96.5    119.6          99.7
 
  2000         96.7     97.3    104.4    107.3     95.4     95.3
              101.5     96.3     95.3     96.4     95.8    122.0         100.3
 
  2001         96.3    102.0    107.1    104.0     95.2     94.5
              101.2     96.9     94.1     97.7     97.8    115.4         100.2
 
  2002         97.9     97.6    106.3    106.0     93.1     95.2
              100.7     94.9     97.4     97.6     96.1    115.2          99.8
 
  2003         97.5     98.4    105.6    106.4     93.4     98.4
               98.8     98.2     96.1     96.9     97.0    114.5         100.1
 
  2004         97.7     98.5    104.0    108.7     96.6     94.4
               98.5     98.4     96.3     96.4     96.7    112.8          99.9
 
  2005         99.0     99.0    104.4    107.1     96.2     95.7
               96.2     98.2     96.6     97.6     96.1    114.1         100.0
 
  2006         97.5     99.3    104.2    107.4     96.7     96.2
               97.3     96.7     93.4     97.7     97.1    113.1          99.7
 
  2007         98.3    100.4    103.8    107.8     96.4     95.6
               96.4     97.5     95.5     97.3     96.0    115.3         100.0
 
  2008        102.6     98.3    104.1    107.3     95.6     96.2
               98.4     96.0     96.2     96.6     98.6    113.2         100.3
 
  2009         98.5     99.6    104.6    106.3     95.9     96.3
               96.3     97.7     96.0     96.9     99.1    113.8         100.1
 
  2010         98.5     97.9    108.1    104.8     94.8     96.6
               96.9     99.4     96.2     96.9     99.5    111.2         100.1
 
  2011         98.6     98.5    104.9    106.8     96.5     95.6
               97.1     97.3     96.0     98.1     97.7    113.4         100.0
 
  2012         97.9     98.9    104.4    107.0     98.7     95.9
               97.5     98.3     94.6     97.5     97.4    111.5         100.0
 
  2013         98.6    101.2    107.7    106.8     96.0     94.9
               97.3     96.4     97.7     97.6     96.7    111.9         100.2
 
  2014         99.8     99.0    106.0    107.7     93.2     96.9
               96.4                                                       99.8
 
  AVGE         96.0     97.3    105.7    105.0     94.3     95.8
              100.0     97.2     94.3     95.5     95.9    123.0

  Table Total-     40295.09   Mean-      99.99   Std. Dev.-       8.37
                              Min -      90.46        Max -     137.24
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  11, SERIES lev-jb

 D 8.A  F-tests for seasonality

    Test for the presence of seasonality assuming stability.

                           Sum of     Dgrs.of         Mean
                          Squares     Freedom        Square       F-Value
    Between months       24498.6131       11       2227.14665     232.348**
          Residual        3747.8903      391          9.58540
             Total       28246.5034      402

            **Seasonality present at the 0.1 per cent level.


  Nonparametric Test for the Presence of Seasonality Assuming Stability

                 Kruskal-Wallis      Degrees of    Probability
                   Statistic        Freedom         Level

                     297.0500          11            0.000%

            Seasonality present at the one percent level.


  Moving Seasonality Test
                         Sum of     Dgrs.of         Mean
                        Squares     Freedom        Square       F-value
   Between Years         790.2523       32        24.695383       3.224**
           Error        2696.3763      352         7.660160

          **Moving seasonality present at the one percent level.


  COMBINED TEST FOR THE PRESENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE SEASONALITY


            IDENTIFIABLE SEASONALITY PRESENT
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  12, SERIES lev-jb

 D 8.B  Final unmodified SI ratios, with labels for outliers and extreme values
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan       Feb       Mar       Apr       May       Jun  
               Jul       Aug       Sep       Oct       Nov       Dec  
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        93.1      94.7     106.1     103.9      92.8      96.1  
             101.2      96.9      91.5      91.0*     93.9     136.1  
 
  1982        92.1      95.3     106.7     101.6*     93.2      97.7* 
             101.4      96.9      90.7      93.9      94.3     136.0  
 
  1983        94.2*     95.1     106.1     103.4      92.4      96.2  
             101.7      97.0      90.5*     93.6      94.9     137.2* 
 
  1984        91.0*     95.4     104.4*    103.7      93.1      95.9  
             101.5      96.1      92.7*     94.0      94.0     135.9  
 
  1985        92.8      94.3     106.3     104.2      92.6      95.6  
             101.6      96.1      92.5      94.0      95.3     135.3  
 
  1986        92.8      94.3     104.9     104.1      93.1      96.0  
             101.4      97.6      91.6      94.4      95.1     131.0* 
 
  1987        92.6      95.1     105.4     103.1      94.1      95.1  
             102.1      97.2      91.6      94.7      94.9     130.6* 
 
  1988        93.9      94.9     105.2     103.6      95.3*     94.4* 
             102.7      97.3      92.8      93.7      94.6     132.5  
 
  1989        94.1      95.5     111.3*    102.8      92.9      95.6  
             102.9      95.6*     92.7      93.8      95.7     132.3  
 
  1990        94.1      95.3     105.3     103.8      93.7      95.2  
             102.4      96.3      93.3      93.6      92.4*    131.2  
 
  1991        94.6      95.5     106.6     103.0      93.1      98.5* 
             102.5      97.3      92.9      94.5      94.5     128.6  
 
  1992        95.3      96.8     105.8     101.3*     94.0      94.6  
             102.4      96.9      94.0      94.1      94.9     127.6  
 
  1993        93.5*     97.5     107.8*    103.8      93.4      94.9  
             101.5      97.1      93.2*     94.6      96.0     127.7  
 
  1994        95.7      97.1     103.4*    104.1      92.7      94.5  
             101.9      96.9      95.5      95.2      95.3     126.7  
 
  1995        94.4      96.9     104.6     104.9      93.7      94.4  
             101.3      97.4      96.0      94.6      93.6*    125.6  
 
  1996        97.1*     95.9     105.4     104.9      92.9      98.5* 
              98.3*     98.4      92.8*     93.6      95.6     124.9  
 
  1997        96.8      99.5*    105.7#    104.3      92.0*     94.4  
             101.7      98.5      95.7      95.7      95.2     121.9  
 
  1998        95.5      97.7     108.2*    104.6      93.0      95.5  
             100.5      97.9      95.5      95.5      96.3     120.8  
 
  1999        96.5      94.0*    106.0     103.6      95.1      95.1  
             101.5      98.6      94.1      95.6      96.5     119.6  
 
  2000        96.7      97.3     104.4*    107.3*     95.4      95.3  
             101.5      96.3      95.3      96.4      95.8     122.0* 
 
  2001        96.3     102.0*    107.1     104.0*     95.2      94.5  
             101.2      96.9      94.1      97.7      97.8     115.4  
 
  2002        97.9      97.6     106.3     106.0      93.1*     95.2  
             100.7      94.9*     97.4*     97.6      96.1     115.2  
 
  2003        97.5      98.4     105.6     106.4      93.4*     98.4* 
              98.8      98.2      96.1      96.9      97.0     114.5  
 
  2004        97.7      98.5     104.0     108.7*     96.6      94.4  
              98.5      98.4      96.3      96.4      96.7     112.8  
 
  2005        99.0      99.0     104.4     107.1      96.2      95.7  
              96.2*     98.2      96.6      97.6      96.1     114.1  
 
  2006        97.5      99.3     104.2     107.4      96.7      96.2  
              97.3      96.7      93.4*     97.7      97.1     113.1  
 
  2007        98.3     100.4*    103.8     107.8      96.4      95.6  
              96.4      97.5      95.5      97.3      96.0*    115.3* 
 
  2008       102.6*     98.3     104.1     107.3      95.6      96.2  
              98.4*     96.0*     96.2      96.6      98.6     113.2  
 
  2009        98.5      99.6     104.6     106.3      95.9      96.3  
              96.3      97.7      96.0      96.9      99.1     113.8  
 
  2010        98.5      97.9     108.1*    104.8*     94.8*     96.6  
              96.9      99.4*     96.2      96.9      99.5*    111.2* 
 
  2011        98.6      98.5     104.9#    106.8      96.5      95.6  
              97.1      97.3      96.0      98.1      97.7     113.4  
 
  2012        97.9      98.9     104.4*    107.0      98.7*     95.9  
              97.5      98.3      94.6*     97.5      97.4     111.5  
 
  2013        98.6     101.2*    107.7*    106.8      96.0      94.9  
              97.3      96.4      97.7*     97.6      96.7     111.9 -
 
  2014        99.8 -    99.0 -   106.0@    107.7 -    93.2*-    96.9*-
              96.4                                                    
 

  Key to symbols:
    *  : extreme value as determined by X-11 extreme value procedure
    #  : regARIMA outlier (either AO, LS, TC, or Ramp)
    @  : extreme value and at least one type of regARIMA outlier
    -  : values around a level shift most likely to be influenced by it
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  13, SERIES lev-jb

 D 9  Final replacement values for SI ratios
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
  1981     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ********     93.5 ******** ********
 
  1982     ******** ******** ********    103.7 ********     96.1
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1983         93.0 ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ********     91.0 ******** ********    136.3
 
  1984         92.6 ********    104.7 ******** ******** ********
           ******** ********     92.6 ******** ******** ********
 
  1985     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1986     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ********    133.9
 
  1987     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ********    133.1
 
  1988     ******** ******** ******** ********     93.5     94.6
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1989     ******** ********    106.0 ******** ******** ********
           ********     95.8 ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1990     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ********     94.8 ********
 
  1991     ******** ******** ******** ******** ********     95.3
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1992     ******** ******** ********    103.1 ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1993         95.2 ********    105.5 ******** ******** ********
           ******** ********     93.4 ******** ******** ********
 
  1994     ******** ********    104.6 ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1995     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ********     94.7 ********
 
  1996         96.6 ******** ******** ******** ********     94.7
              101.3 ********     95.1 ******** ******** ********
 
  1997     ********     97.1 ******** ********     92.2 ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1998     ******** ********    106.5 ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  1999     ********     97.1 ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2000     ******** ********    104.6    105.8 ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ********    118.9
 
  2001     ********     98.2 ********    104.2 ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2002     ******** ******** ******** ********     93.7 ********
           ********     97.0     96.4 ******** ******** ********
 
  2003     ******** ******** ******** ********     94.9     95.4
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2004     ******** ******** ********    107.9 ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2005     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
               97.1 ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2006     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ********     95.9 ******** ******** ********
 
  2007     ********    100.0 ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ********     98.0    114.7
 
  2008         98.7 ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
               97.5     96.8 ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2009     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2010     ******** ********    104.9    106.7     94.9 ********
           ********     98.1 ******** ********     99.3    111.8
 
  2011     ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
           ******** ******** ******** ******** ******** ********
 
  2012     ******** ********    104.8 ********     96.1 ********
           ******** ********     95.0 ******** ******** ********
 
  2013     ********     99.6    107.2 ******** ******** ********
           ******** ********     96.7 ******** ******** ********
 
  2014     ******** ******** ******** ********     95.6     96.3
           ********                                             
 

 D 9.A  Moving seasonality ratio
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
   I          0.629    0.673    0.766    0.627    0.797    0.546
   S          0.208    0.164    0.163    0.153    0.155    0.110
 RATIO        3.021    4.108    4.692    4.093    5.148    4.939



 ---------------------------------------------------------------
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------
   I          0.526    0.735    0.787    0.604    0.708    0.727
   S          0.206    0.107    0.200    0.154    0.159    0.627
 RATIO        2.558    6.875    3.929    3.932    4.442    1.160



        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  14, SERIES lev-jb

 D 10  Final seasonal factors
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
  Seasonal filter    3 x 5 moving average
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         92.7     95.1    106.0    103.6     92.8     96.1
              101.4     96.8     91.3     93.7     94.3    136.1         100.0
 
  1982         92.7     95.0    106.0    103.7     92.8     96.0
              101.4     96.7     91.5     93.7     94.4    136.0         100.0
 
  1983         92.7     95.0    105.8    103.7     92.8     96.0
              101.5     96.7     91.6     93.8     94.5    135.8         100.0
 
  1984         92.7     94.9    105.7    103.7     92.9     95.9
              101.6     96.7     91.8     94.0     94.7    135.4         100.0
 
  1985         92.8     94.8    105.5    103.7     93.0     95.7
              101.7     96.8     91.9     94.1     94.8    134.8         100.0
 
  1986         93.0     94.8    105.4    103.6     93.2     95.5
              101.9     96.8     92.1     94.1     94.9    134.2         100.0
 
  1987         93.2     94.9    105.4    103.6     93.3     95.4
              102.1     96.8     92.3     94.1     95.0    133.4         100.0
 
  1988         93.5     95.0    105.5    103.4     93.4     95.3
              102.4     96.8     92.4     94.1     95.0    132.5          99.9
 
  1989         93.9     95.3    105.6    103.3     93.4     95.2
              102.5     96.8     92.7     94.0     94.9    131.5          99.9
 
  1990         94.3     95.6    105.8    103.2     93.4     95.1
              102.5     96.7     93.0     94.0     95.0    130.5          99.9
 
  1991         94.7     96.0    105.7    103.3     93.4     95.0
              102.4     96.8     93.4     94.2     95.0    129.5         100.0
 
  1992         94.9     96.4    105.6    103.5     93.4     94.9
              102.2     96.9     93.8     94.4     95.1    128.4         100.0
 
  1993         95.2     96.7    105.4    103.8     93.3     94.8
              101.9     97.1     94.3     94.5     95.1    127.4         100.0
 
  1994         95.4     96.8    105.2    104.1     93.2     94.6
              101.7     97.4     94.8     94.6     95.2    126.4         100.0
 
  1995         95.7     96.9    105.2    104.3     93.0     94.6
              101.6     97.6     95.2     94.7     95.4    125.3         100.0
 
  1996         95.8     96.9    105.4    104.4     93.0     94.7
              101.4     97.9     95.4     94.9     95.5    124.0          99.9
 
  1997         96.0     97.0    105.5    104.5     93.3     94.8
              101.3     98.0     95.4     95.1     95.7    122.6          99.9
 
  1998         96.2     97.1    105.7    104.5     93.7     94.9
              101.3     98.0     95.2     95.5     95.9    121.0          99.9
 
  1999         96.4     97.4    105.9    104.6     94.1     95.0
              101.3     97.7     95.1     96.0     96.2    119.5          99.9
 
  2000         96.6     97.6    106.0    104.8     94.4     95.1
              101.1     97.5     95.1     96.5     96.5    118.0          99.9
 
  2001         96.9     97.8    105.8    105.3     94.8     95.1
              100.7     97.4     95.3     96.8     96.6    116.7          99.9
 
  2002         97.3     98.0    105.6    105.8     95.1     95.0
              100.1     97.5     95.6     97.0     96.7    115.5          99.9
 
  2003         97.6     98.3    105.3    106.4     95.3     95.1
               99.3     97.6     95.9     97.2     96.7    114.5          99.9
 
  2004         97.9     98.7    104.9    106.9     95.7     95.3
               98.5     97.8     96.1     97.2     96.8    114.0         100.0
 
  2005         98.0     98.9    104.5    107.3     96.0     95.5
               97.8     97.7     96.1     97.2     97.0    113.8         100.0
 
  2006         98.2     99.1    104.3    107.4     96.2     95.7
               97.3     97.5     96.1     97.2     97.4    113.7         100.0
 
  2007         98.3     99.1    104.2    107.3     96.1     95.9
               97.1     97.4     96.0     97.1     97.9    113.6         100.0
 
  2008         98.4     99.1    104.4    107.1     96.0     96.1
               96.9     97.4     96.0     97.2     98.3    113.5         100.0
 
  2009         98.4     98.9    104.5    107.0     95.8     96.1
               97.0     97.5     95.9     97.2     98.5    113.2         100.0
 
  2010         98.5     98.8    104.8    106.8     95.8     96.0
               97.0     97.6     96.0     97.3     98.3    112.9         100.0
 
  2011         98.5     98.8    105.2    106.8     95.8     96.0
               97.1     97.5     96.0     97.3     98.0    112.4         100.0
 
  2012         98.6     99.0    105.6    107.0     95.9     95.9
               97.0     97.4     96.0     97.5     97.6    112.3         100.0
 
  2013         98.7     99.1    105.8    107.1     95.8     95.8
               97.0     97.2     96.0     97.5     97.3    112.1         100.0
 
  2014         98.9     99.3    106.1    107.2     95.7     95.8
               97.0                                                      100.0
 
  AVGE         96.0     97.1    105.4    105.1     94.3     95.4
              100.2     97.3     94.4     95.6     96.1    123.0

  Table Total-     40286.52   Mean-      99.97   Std. Dev.-       8.31
                              Min -      91.31        Max -     136.08

 D 10.A  Final seasonal component forecasts
  From  2014.Aug to 2015.Jul
  Observations         12
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2014                                                          
                        97.1     96.0     97.5     97.1    112.1         100.0
 
  2015         98.9     99.3    106.3    107.3     95.6     95.8
               96.9                                                      100.0
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  15, SERIES lev-jb

 D 11  Final seasonally adjusted data
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec        TOTAL  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         92.9     92.0     92.5     92.7     92.5     92.7
               92.8     93.3     93.5     90.8     93.3     94.0        1113.1
 
  1982         93.7     95.1     96.0     93.7     96.2     97.6
               95.7     95.8     94.9     95.9     95.8     95.9        1146.3
 
  1983         97.4     95.9     95.9     95.3     95.3     96.1
               96.3     96.6     95.2     96.2     96.9     97.6        1154.8
 
  1984         94.7     97.1     95.4     96.6     97.0     97.0
               97.1     96.7     98.3     97.4     96.7     97.9        1161.7
 
  1985         97.7     97.3     98.8     98.4     97.4     97.5
               97.4     96.9     98.3     97.8     98.5     98.4        1174.5
 
  1986         97.9     97.7     97.8     99.0     98.7     99.6
               98.9    100.3     99.0     99.9     99.8     97.3        1185.9
 
  1987         99.1    100.1    100.2     99.9    101.5    100.5
              100.9    101.5    100.6    102.3    102.0    100.3        1209.2
 
  1988        103.2    102.9    102.9    103.7    105.9    103.0
              104.6    104.8    104.7    103.8    103.5    103.8        1246.9
 
  1989        103.9    103.9    109.3    103.2    103.1    104.2
              104.5    103.3    105.1    105.4    107.0    107.1        1260.1
 
  1990        106.5    106.4    106.5    107.4    107.1    106.8
              106.3    105.9    106.6    106.0    103.8    107.5        1276.9
 
  1991        107.0    106.6    108.4    107.4    107.8    112.5
              108.9    109.5    108.3    109.2    108.1    108.0        1301.8
 
  1992        109.2    109.3    109.3    106.9    110.1    109.0
              109.5    109.2    109.1    108.5    108.4    108.1        1306.7
 
  1993        107.0    110.0    111.6    109.1    108.9    108.6
              107.7    108.1    107.1    108.9    110.2    109.6        1306.6
 
  1994        109.6    109.2    106.5    108.0    107.2    107.7
              108.2    107.6    108.9    108.5    107.3    107.1        1295.8
 
  1995        105.3    106.7    106.4    108.1    108.7    107.8
              107.8    107.8    108.9    107.9    106.0    108.4        1289.9
 
  1996        109.6    107.1    108.4    108.9    108.2    112.5
              104.5    108.2    104.8    106.4    108.4    109.5        1296.4
 
  1997        109.6    111.5    115.0    107.5    105.9    106.8
              107.7    107.9    107.6    107.5    105.8    105.3        1298.2
 
  1998        104.9    106.2    108.1    105.6    104.7    106.0
              104.4    105.4    106.2    106.2    106.8    106.3        1270.9
 
  1999        106.4    102.5    106.1    104.9    107.0    105.9
              105.6    105.9    103.3    103.3    103.6    103.2        1257.7
 
  2000        103.1    102.8    101.8    106.1    104.8    104.1
              104.4    102.5    103.9    103.5    103.0    107.3        1247.2
 
  2001        103.2    108.1    104.6    101.6    102.9    101.3
              102.2    101.1    100.5    103.1    103.7    101.7        1233.9
 
  2002        103.6    102.5    103.7    103.3    101.1    103.6
              104.3    101.0    105.6    103.9    102.2    102.1        1236.8
 
  2003        101.8    101.8    101.9    101.6     99.6    105.2
              101.4    102.9    102.7    102.5    103.4    103.2        1228.0
 
  2004        103.2    103.4    102.6    105.3    104.3    102.0
              102.6    102.7    101.9    100.7    101.6    100.7        1230.9
 
  2005        103.0    102.3    102.2    102.3    102.8    103.0
              101.3    103.7    103.6    103.2    101.5    102.1        1231.1
 
  2006        100.6    101.3    100.9    100.9    101.2    101.2
              100.5     99.5     97.6    101.1    100.4    100.4        1205.7
 
  2007        101.3    102.8    101.2    102.2    101.9    101.0
              100.6    101.4    100.9    101.7     99.5    102.8        1217.4
 
  2008        105.1     99.5     99.7     99.7     99.0     99.4
              100.6     97.4     98.7     97.9     98.7     98.3        1194.1
 
  2009         98.9     99.8     99.4     98.8     99.5     99.7
               98.9     99.9     99.9     99.7    100.8    100.7        1196.1
 
  2010        100.0     98.9    102.8     97.7     98.6    100.5
              100.0    102.1    100.5     99.7    101.1     98.3        1200.2
 
  2011         99.8     99.4     94.1     95.8     97.6     97.1
               97.9     97.9     98.5     99.3     98.3     99.3        1175.0
 
  2012         97.6     98.1     97.1     98.4    101.5     98.9
               99.5    100.0     97.6     99.1     99.0     98.9        1185.7
 
  2013         99.8    102.3    102.0     99.8    100.0     98.6
               99.8     98.8    101.6    100.1     99.6    100.1        1202.3
 
  2014        101.2    100.0    109.2     95.2     92.2     95.8
               94.1                                                      687.8
 
  AVGE        102.3    102.4    102.9    101.9    102.1    102.4
              102.0    102.3    102.2    102.3    102.3    102.5

  Table Total-     41225.49   Mean-     102.30   Std. Dev.-       4.50
                              Min -      90.82        Max -     114.95

                    Test for the presence of residual seasonality.

       No evidence of residual seasonality in the entire series at the
            1 per cent level.  F =      1.04

       No evidence of residual seasonality in the last 3 years at the
            1 per cent level.  F =      0.99

       No evidence of residual seasonality in the last 3 years at the
            5 per cent level.

 Note: sudden large changes in the level of the adjusted series will
       invalidate the results of this test for the last three year period.
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  16, SERIES lev-jb
  
 D 12  Final trend cycle
       (LS outliers included)
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
  Trend filter    23-term Henderson moving average
  I/C ratio        3.50
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec        TOTAL  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         92.3     92.4     92.5     92.6     92.7     92.8
               92.9     93.1     93.3     93.5     93.8     94.2        1116.1
 
  1982         94.5     94.9     95.2     95.4     95.6     95.8
               95.8     95.9     95.8     95.8     95.8     95.8        1146.3
 
  1983         95.7     95.8     95.8     95.8     95.9     96.0
               96.1     96.2     96.3     96.4     96.4     96.5        1152.9
 
  1984         96.5     96.6     96.6     96.7     96.8     96.9
               97.0     97.1     97.3     97.4     97.6     97.7        1164.2
 
  1985         97.7     97.8     97.8     97.8     97.8     97.8
               97.8     97.8     97.8     97.8     97.9     98.0        1173.5
 
  1986         98.1     98.3     98.5     98.7     98.9     99.0
               99.2     99.3     99.5     99.6     99.6     99.7        1188.4
 
  1987         99.8    100.0    100.1    100.3    100.5    100.8
              101.0    101.3    101.6    101.8    102.1    102.4        1211.7
 
  1988        102.7    103.0    103.3    103.6    103.8    104.0
              104.1    104.2    104.2    104.1    104.0    103.9        1244.8
 
  1989        103.8    103.7    103.6    103.7    103.8    104.0
              104.3    104.7    105.1    105.5    106.0    106.3        1254.4
 
  1990        106.6    106.8    106.8    106.8    106.8    106.7
              106.6    106.5    106.5    106.5    106.7    106.8        1280.0
 
  1991        107.1    107.3    107.6    107.9    108.2    108.4
              108.5    108.6    108.7    108.8    108.8    108.9        1298.9
 
  1992        109.0    109.1    109.1    109.2    109.2    109.2
              109.2    109.1    109.0    109.0    109.0    108.9        1309.0
 
  1993        108.9    108.8    108.8    108.7    108.7    108.6
              108.7    108.7    108.7    108.8    108.8    108.8        1305.0
 
  1994        108.8    108.7    108.6    108.4    108.3    108.1
              107.9    107.7    107.6    107.4    107.3    107.2        1295.9
 
  1995        107.2    107.2    107.2    107.4    107.5    107.7
              107.9    108.0    108.1    108.2    108.2    108.2        1293.0
 
  1996        108.2    108.2    108.2    108.1    108.1    108.0
              108.0    108.1    108.2    108.2    108.3    108.3        1297.8
 
  1997        108.3    108.2    108.1    108.0    107.8    107.6
              107.3    107.1    106.8    106.6    106.4    106.2        1288.4
 
  1998        105.9    105.7    105.5    105.4    105.4    105.5
              105.6    105.7    105.9    106.0    106.1    106.2        1269.0
 
  1999        106.3    106.3    106.2    106.1    105.8    105.5
              105.1    104.7    104.3    103.9    103.6    103.4        1261.3
 
  2000        103.3    103.3    103.4    103.5    103.6    103.7
              103.8    103.8    103.9    103.8    103.8    103.7        1243.5
 
  2001        103.5    103.3    103.0    102.8    102.5    102.3
              102.1    102.0    102.0    102.1    102.3    102.5        1230.4
 
  2002        102.7    103.0    103.2    103.3    103.4    103.5
              103.5    103.4    103.3    103.1    102.8    102.5        1237.5
 
  2003        102.2    102.0    101.8    101.7    101.7    101.8
              102.0    102.3    102.5    102.8    103.0    103.2        1227.0
 
  2004        103.4    103.4    103.4    103.3    103.1    102.8
              102.5    102.3    102.0    101.9    101.8    101.8        1231.6
 
  2005        101.9    102.1    102.3    102.6    102.8    102.9
              102.9    102.9    102.7    102.5    102.2    102.0        1229.7
 
  2006        101.7    101.4    101.1    100.9    100.7    100.6
              100.5    100.5    100.6    100.7    100.8    101.0        1210.3
 
  2007        101.1    101.3    101.4    101.5    101.5    101.6
              101.6    101.5    101.4    101.3    101.1    100.9        1216.3
 
  2008        100.7    100.4    100.1     99.8     99.4     99.1
               98.9     98.7     98.7     98.6     98.7     98.7        1191.9
 
  2009         98.8     99.0     99.1     99.3     99.4     99.6
               99.7     99.8     99.9     99.9     99.9     99.9        1194.2
 
  2010         99.9     99.8     99.8     99.8     99.9     99.9
              100.0    100.0    100.1    100.0    100.0     99.9        1199.2
 
  2011         99.8     99.7     99.6     99.5     99.4     99.3
               99.3     99.2     99.0     98.9     98.7     98.6        1191.0
 
  2012         98.5     98.5     98.5     98.5     98.6     98.7
               98.8     99.0     99.2     99.3     99.5     99.6        1186.8
 
  2013         99.8     99.8     99.9     99.9     99.9     99.8
               99.8     99.8     99.8     99.9    100.0    100.1        1198.5
 
  2014        100.3    100.4     94.8     94.8     94.8     94.7
               94.7                                                      674.4
 
  AVGE        102.2    102.2    102.1    102.1    102.1    102.1
              102.1    102.4    102.4    102.4    102.5    102.5

  Table Total-     41213.08   Mean-     102.27   Std. Dev.-       4.26
                              Min -      92.33        Max -     109.22
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  17, SERIES lev-jb

 D 13  Final irregular component
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         S.D.  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981        100.6     99.6    100.0    100.2     99.8     99.9
               99.8    100.2    100.3     97.1     99.4     99.8           0.9
 
  1982         99.2    100.3    100.8     98.2    100.6    101.9
               99.9    100.0     99.0    100.1    100.0    100.1           0.9
 
  1983        101.7    100.2    100.1     99.5     99.4    100.2
              100.2    100.4     98.9     99.9    100.5    101.1           0.7
 
  1984         98.1    100.5     98.7     99.9    100.2    100.1
              100.1     99.5    101.1     99.9     99.2    100.2           0.8
 
  1985        100.0     99.6    101.1    100.7     99.6     99.7
               99.7     99.1    100.6    100.0    100.7    100.4           0.6
 
  1986         99.8     99.4     99.3    100.3     99.9    100.6
               99.7    100.9     99.5    100.3    100.1     97.5           0.9
 
  1987         99.3    100.2    100.1     99.6    101.0     99.8
               99.9    100.2     99.1    100.5     99.9     98.0           0.8
 
  1988        100.4     99.9     99.6    100.1    102.0     99.1
              100.5    100.7    100.5     99.7     99.5     99.9           0.7
 
  1989        100.1    100.2    105.5     99.6     99.3    100.2
              100.1     98.7    100.0     99.9    101.0    100.7           1.7
 
  1990         99.9     99.7     99.7    100.6    100.4    100.1
               99.8     99.4    100.1     99.5     97.4    100.6           0.9
 
  1991         99.9     99.3    100.7     99.5     99.7    103.8
              100.4    100.8     99.6    100.4     99.3     99.2           1.2
 
  1992        100.2    100.2    100.1     97.9    100.8     99.8
              100.3    100.1    100.1     99.5     99.5     99.2           0.7
 
  1993         98.2    101.0    102.6    100.3    100.2    100.0
               99.1     99.4     98.5    100.1    101.2    100.8           1.2
 
  1994        100.8    100.4     98.1     99.6     99.0     99.6
              100.3     99.9    101.2    101.0    100.0     99.9           0.8
 
  1995         98.2     99.6     99.3    100.7    101.1    100.1
               99.9     99.8    100.7     99.7     98.0    100.1           0.9
 
  1996        101.2     99.0    100.2    100.7    100.2    104.1
               96.7    100.1     96.9     98.3    100.1    101.1           1.9
 
  1997        101.3    103.0    106.3     99.6     98.2     99.3
              100.4    100.8    100.7    100.8     99.5     99.2           2.2
 
  1998         99.0    100.5    102.4    100.2     99.3    100.5
               98.9     99.7    100.4    100.2    100.7    100.1           0.9
 
  1999        100.1     96.4     99.9     98.9    101.2    100.3
              100.4    101.1     99.0     99.4    100.0     99.8           1.2
 
  2000         99.8     99.5     98.5    102.5    101.2    100.4
              100.6     98.7    100.0     99.6     99.3    103.5           1.5
 
  2001         99.7    104.7    101.5     98.8    100.4     99.1
              100.1     99.1     98.5    100.9    101.4     99.2           1.7
 
  2002        100.9     99.6    100.5    100.0     97.7    100.2
              100.8     97.7    102.2    100.8     99.4     99.6           1.2
 
  2003         99.6     99.8    100.1     99.9     98.0    103.3
               99.4    100.6    100.2     99.7    100.4    100.0           1.2
 
  2004         99.9     99.9     99.3    101.9    101.2     99.2
              100.0    100.4     99.9     98.8     99.8     98.9           0.9
 
  2005        101.1    100.3     99.9     99.7    100.0    100.2
               98.4    100.8    100.9    100.7     99.2    100.2           0.7
 
  2006         99.0     99.9     99.8    100.0    100.6    100.6
              100.0     99.0     97.1    100.4     99.6     99.4           1.0
 
  2007        100.2    101.5     99.8    100.7    100.3     99.5
               99.1     99.9     99.5    100.4     98.4    101.8           0.9
 
  2008        104.3     99.1     99.6    100.0     99.6    100.3
              101.8     98.7    100.1     99.2    100.0     99.6           1.5
 
  2009        100.0    100.9    100.3     99.6    100.1    100.1
               99.2    100.1    100.1     99.8    100.8    100.8           0.5
 
  2010        100.2     99.0    102.9     97.9     98.7    100.6
              100.0    102.1    100.4     99.7    101.1     98.4           1.4
 
  2011        100.0     99.7     94.6     96.4     98.2     97.8
               98.6     98.7     99.4    100.5     99.5    100.7           2.2
 
  2012         99.0     99.6     98.6     99.8    103.0    100.2
              100.7    101.1     98.4     99.8     99.4     99.2           1.2
 
  2013        100.0    102.5    102.1     99.9    100.1     98.8
               99.9     99.0    101.8    100.2     99.6    100.0           1.2
 
  2014        100.9     99.7    115.2    100.4     97.3    101.1
               99.4                                                        5.9
 
  S.D.          1.1      1.3      3.3      1.1      1.2      1.3
                0.9      0.9      1.2      0.8      0.9      1.1

  Table Total-     40312.02   Mean-     100.03   Std. Dev.-       1.42
                              Min -      94.56        Max -     115.23
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  18, SERIES lev-jb

 D 16  Combined adjustment factors
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         92.7     95.1    106.0    103.6     92.8     96.1
              101.4     96.8     91.3     93.7     94.3    136.1         100.0
 
  1982         92.7     95.0    106.0    103.7     92.8     96.0
              101.4     96.7     91.5     93.7     94.4    136.0         100.0
 
  1983         92.7     95.0    105.8    103.7     92.8     96.0
              101.5     96.7     91.6     93.8     94.5    135.8         100.0
 
  1984         92.7     94.9    105.7    103.7     92.9     95.9
              101.6     96.7     91.8     94.0     94.7    135.4         100.0
 
  1985         92.8     94.8    105.5    103.7     93.0     95.7
              101.7     96.8     91.9     94.1     94.8    134.8         100.0
 
  1986         93.0     94.8    105.4    103.6     93.2     95.5
              101.9     96.8     92.1     94.1     94.9    134.2         100.0
 
  1987         93.2     94.9    105.4    103.6     93.3     95.4
              102.1     96.8     92.3     94.1     95.0    133.4         100.0
 
  1988         93.5     95.0    105.5    103.4     93.4     95.3
              102.4     96.8     92.4     94.1     95.0    132.5          99.9
 
  1989         93.9     95.3    105.6    103.3     93.4     95.2
              102.5     96.8     92.7     94.0     94.9    131.5          99.9
 
  1990         94.3     95.6    105.8    103.2     93.4     95.1
              102.5     96.7     93.0     94.0     95.0    130.5          99.9
 
  1991         94.7     96.0    105.7    103.3     93.4     95.0
              102.4     96.8     93.4     94.2     95.0    129.5         100.0
 
  1992         94.9     96.4    105.6    103.5     93.4     94.9
              102.2     96.9     93.8     94.4     95.1    128.4         100.0
 
  1993         95.2     96.7    105.4    103.8     93.3     94.8
              101.9     97.1     94.3     94.5     95.1    127.4         100.0
 
  1994         95.4     96.8    105.2    104.1     93.2     94.6
              101.7     97.4     94.8     94.6     95.2    126.4         100.0
 
  1995         95.7     96.9    105.2    104.3     93.0     94.6
              101.6     97.6     95.2     94.7     95.4    125.3         100.0
 
  1996         95.8     96.9    105.4    104.4     93.0     94.7
              101.4     97.9     95.4     94.9     95.5    124.0          99.9
 
  1997         96.0     97.0    105.5    104.5     93.3     94.8
              101.3     98.0     95.4     95.1     95.7    122.6          99.9
 
  1998         96.2     97.1    105.7    104.5     93.7     94.9
              101.3     98.0     95.2     95.5     95.9    121.0          99.9
 
  1999         96.4     97.4    105.9    104.6     94.1     95.0
              101.3     97.7     95.1     96.0     96.2    119.5          99.9
 
  2000         96.6     97.6    106.0    104.8     94.4     95.1
              101.1     97.5     95.1     96.5     96.5    118.0          99.9
 
  2001         96.9     97.8    105.8    105.3     94.8     95.1
              100.7     97.4     95.3     96.8     96.6    116.7          99.9
 
  2002         97.3     98.0    105.6    105.8     95.1     95.0
              100.1     97.5     95.6     97.0     96.7    115.5          99.9
 
  2003         97.6     98.3    105.3    106.4     95.3     95.1
               99.3     97.6     95.9     97.2     96.7    114.5          99.9
 
  2004         97.9     98.7    104.9    106.9     95.7     95.3
               98.5     97.8     96.1     97.2     96.8    114.0         100.0
 
  2005         98.0     98.9    104.5    107.3     96.0     95.5
               97.8     97.7     96.1     97.2     97.0    113.8         100.0
 
  2006         98.2     99.1    104.3    107.4     96.2     95.7
               97.3     97.5     96.1     97.2     97.4    113.7         100.0
 
  2007         98.3     99.1    104.2    107.3     96.1     95.9
               97.1     97.4     96.0     97.1     97.9    113.6         100.0
 
  2008         98.4     99.1    104.4    107.1     96.0     96.1
               96.9     97.4     96.0     97.2     98.3    113.5         100.0
 
  2009         98.4     98.9    104.5    107.0     95.8     96.1
               97.0     97.5     95.9     97.2     98.5    113.2         100.0
 
  2010         98.5     98.8    104.8    106.8     95.8     96.0
               97.0     97.6     96.0     97.3     98.3    112.9         100.0
 
  2011         98.5     98.8    105.2    106.8     95.8     96.0
               97.1     97.5     96.0     97.3     98.0    112.4         100.0
 
  2012         98.6     99.0    105.6    107.0     95.9     95.9
               97.0     97.4     96.0     97.5     97.6    112.3         100.0
 
  2013         98.7     99.1    105.8    107.1     95.8     95.8
               97.0     97.2     96.0     97.5     97.3    112.1         100.0
 
  2014         98.9     99.3    106.1    107.2     95.7     95.8
               97.0                                                      100.0
 
  AVGE         96.0     97.1    105.4    105.1     94.3     95.4
              100.2     97.3     94.4     95.6     96.1    123.0

  Table Total-     40286.52   Mean-      99.97   Std. Dev.-       8.31
                              Min -      91.31        Max -     136.08

 D 16.A  Combined adjustment component forecasts
  From  2014.Aug to 2015.Jul
  Observations         12
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2014                                                          
                        97.1     96.0     97.5     97.1    112.1         100.0
 
  2015         98.9     99.3    106.3    107.3     95.6     95.8
               96.9                                                      100.0
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  19, SERIES lev-jb

 E 4  Ratios of annual totals
  From          1981 to 2013
  Observations         33
 -----------------------------------
  Year       Unmodified     Modified
                  (D11)         (E3)
 -----------------------------------
  1981            100.0        100.0
 
  1982            100.0        100.0
 
  1983            100.0        100.0
 
  1984            100.0        100.0
 
  1985            100.0        100.0
 
  1986             99.9        100.0
 
  1987             99.9        100.0
 
  1988             99.9         99.9
 
  1989            100.0        100.0
 
  1990            100.0        100.0
 
  1991             99.9         99.9
 
  1992             99.9         99.9
 
  1993            100.0        100.0
 
  1994             99.9         99.9
 
  1995            100.0        100.0
 
  1996            100.0        100.0
 
  1997             99.9         99.9
 
  1998             99.9         99.9
 
  1999             99.9         99.9
 
  2000            100.0         99.9
 
  2001             99.9         99.9
 
  2002             99.9         99.9
 
  2003             99.9        100.0
 
  2004            100.0        100.0
 
  2005            100.0        100.0
 
  2006            100.0        100.0
 
  2007            100.0        100.0
 
  2008            100.0        100.0
 
  2009            100.0        100.0
 
  2010            100.0        100.0
 
  2011             99.9        100.0
 
  2012             99.9        100.0
 
  2013            100.0        100.0
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  20, SERIES lev-jb

 E 5  Month-to-month percent change in the original series
  From  1981.Feb to 2014.Jul
  Observations        402
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981                   1.6     12.1     -2.0    -10.6      3.7
                5.6     -4.0     -5.4     -0.4      3.4     45.3           4.5
 
  1982        -32.1      4.0     12.5     -4.4     -8.1      4.9
                3.6     -4.5     -6.4      3.6      0.6     44.2           1.5
 
  1983        -30.8      0.9     11.4     -2.6    -10.5      4.3
                5.9     -4.4     -6.6      3.6      1.4     44.7           1.4
 
  1984        -33.7      4.9      9.4     -0.6    -10.1      3.2
                6.0     -5.2     -3.5      1.4      0.1     44.8           1.4
 
  1985        -31.6      1.8     12.9     -2.0    -11.3      3.0
                6.2     -5.3     -3.6      1.8      1.5     42.1           1.3
 
  1986        -31.3      1.6     11.3     -0.5    -10.3      3.5
                5.9     -3.7     -6.1      3.1      0.7     37.8           1.0
 
  1987        -29.2      2.8     11.2     -2.0     -8.5      1.3
                7.5     -4.7     -5.5      3.7      0.6     38.1           1.3
 
  1988        -27.9      1.3     11.0     -1.3     -7.7     -0.7
                9.1     -5.2     -4.6      0.8      0.7     40.0           1.3
 
  1989        -29.1      1.4     16.6     -7.6     -9.7      3.0
                8.0     -6.6     -2.5      1.6      2.5     38.7           1.4
 
  1990        -28.7      1.4     10.6     -1.5     -9.7      1.5
                7.3     -6.1     -3.1      0.5     -1.1     42.3           1.1
 
  1991        -27.8      1.1     11.9     -3.1     -9.3      6.2
                4.3     -4.9     -4.5      1.6     -0.1     36.1           0.9
 
  1992        -25.9      1.7      9.5     -4.1     -7.1      0.7
                8.1     -5.5     -3.2      0.0      0.7     34.6           0.8
 
  1993        -26.7      4.4     10.6     -3.7    -10.2      1.3
                6.7     -4.4     -3.8      1.9      1.8     33.3           0.9
 
  1994        -25.1      1.1      6.1      0.3    -11.1      2.0
                8.0     -4.8     -1.5     -0.6     -0.4     32.5           0.5
 
  1995        -25.6      2.7      8.3      0.7    -10.4      0.9
                7.4     -3.8     -1.5     -1.4     -1.1     34.3           0.9
 
  1996        -22.7     -1.1     10.0     -0.4    -11.4      5.8
               -0.5      0.0     -5.8      1.1      2.5     31.1           0.7
 
  1997        -22.4      2.7     12.2     -7.3    -12.1      2.5
                7.8     -3.1     -3.0     -0.4     -1.0     27.6           0.3
 
  1998        -21.8      2.3     10.8     -3.4    -11.1      2.5
                5.2     -2.4     -2.1      0.3      1.1     25.5           0.6
 
  1999        -20.2     -2.7     12.6     -2.3     -8.3     -0.1
                6.3     -3.3     -5.0      1.0      0.5     23.7           0.2
 
  2000        -19.2      0.7      7.6      3.1    -11.0      0.0
                6.6     -5.3     -1.1      1.1     -0.5     27.4           0.8
 
  2001        -21.0      5.7      4.7     -3.3     -8.9     -1.2
                6.9     -4.3     -2.7      4.2      0.4     18.4          -0.1
 
  2002        -15.0     -0.3      9.0     -0.2    -12.1      2.5
                6.0     -5.7      2.4     -0.1     -2.0     19.3           0.3
 
  2003        -15.7      0.7      7.2      0.7    -12.1      5.4
                0.6     -0.3     -1.9      1.1      0.4     18.2           0.4
 
  2004        -14.6      1.0      5.6      4.5    -11.3     -2.6
                3.9     -0.6     -2.5      0.0      0.4     16.8           0.1
 
  2005        -12.0      0.2      5.5      2.7    -10.0     -0.3
                0.7      2.2     -1.7      0.7     -1.9     18.1           0.4
 
  2006        -15.0      1.6      4.8      2.9    -10.1     -0.6
                1.0     -0.7     -3.4      4.7     -0.4     16.8           0.1
 
  2007        -12.8      2.3      3.5      3.9    -10.7     -1.0
                0.8      1.1     -1.9      2.0     -1.4     19.8           0.5
 
  2008        -11.4     -4.6      5.5      2.7    -11.0      0.5
                2.1     -2.7     -0.1      0.3      2.0     15.1          -0.1
 
  2009        -12.8      1.4      5.3      1.7     -9.7      0.4
                0.1      1.6     -1.5      1.0      2.4     14.8           0.4
 
  2010        -13.5     -0.8     10.2     -3.1     -9.5      2.1
                0.5      2.7     -3.2      0.6      2.5     11.7           0.0
 
  2011        -11.4     -0.1      0.8      3.4     -8.7     -0.3
                1.9      0.5     -1.0      2.3     -0.4     16.0           0.3
 
  2012        -13.9      0.9      5.6      2.6     -7.5     -2.6
                1.9      0.8     -3.8      3.1      0.0     14.9           0.2
 
  2013        -11.3      2.9      6.4     -0.9    -10.4     -1.4
                2.4     -0.8      1.6      0.1     -0.7     15.8           0.3
 
  2014        -10.9     -0.7     16.7    -11.9    -13.5      4.0
               -0.5                                                       -2.4
 
  AVGE        -21.3      1.3      9.1     -1.2    -10.1      1.6
                4.5     -2.8     -3.0      1.3      0.5     28.5

  Table Total-       282.53   Mean-       0.70   Std. Dev.-      11.95
                              Min -     -33.74        Max -      45.34
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  21, SERIES lev-jb

 E 6  Month-to-month percent change in seasonally adjusted series (D11)
  From  1981.Feb to 2014.Jul
  Observations        402
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981                  -0.9      0.5      0.2     -0.2      0.2
                0.1      0.5      0.3     -2.9      2.7      0.7           0.1
 
  1982         -0.3      1.5      0.9     -2.3      2.6      1.4
               -1.9      0.1     -1.0      1.0     -0.1      0.1           0.2
 
  1983          1.6     -1.5      0.0     -0.6      0.0      0.9
                0.1      0.3     -1.5      1.1      0.7      0.6           0.2
 
  1984         -2.9      2.5     -1.8      1.3      0.4      0.0
                0.1     -0.4      1.7     -1.0     -0.6      1.2           0.0
 
  1985         -0.2     -0.4      1.5     -0.4     -1.1      0.1
                0.0     -0.6      1.5     -0.6      0.8     -0.1           0.0
 
  1986         -0.5     -0.3      0.1      1.2     -0.3      0.9
               -0.8      1.4     -1.3      0.9     -0.1     -2.5          -0.1
 
  1987          1.9      1.1      0.1     -0.3      1.6     -1.0
                0.4      0.6     -0.8      1.7     -0.3     -1.7           0.3
 
  1988          2.9     -0.2      0.0      0.7      2.2     -2.7
                1.5      0.2     -0.1     -0.9     -0.3      0.3           0.3
 
  1989          0.1      0.0      5.2     -5.6     -0.1      1.1
                0.3     -1.1      1.8      0.3      1.5      0.1           0.3
 
  1990         -0.6      0.0      0.0      0.9     -0.3     -0.3
               -0.4     -0.4      0.7     -0.6     -2.1      3.5           0.0
 
  1991         -0.5     -0.4      1.7     -0.9      0.4      4.3
               -3.2      0.6     -1.1      0.8     -1.0     -0.1           0.1
 
  1992          1.1      0.1      0.0     -2.1      3.0     -1.0
                0.5     -0.3      0.0     -0.6     -0.1     -0.3           0.0
 
  1993         -1.0      2.8      1.5     -2.3     -0.2     -0.2
               -0.8      0.4     -0.9      1.7      1.1     -0.5           0.1
 
  1994          0.0     -0.4     -2.4      1.4     -0.7      0.4
                0.5     -0.6      1.2     -0.4     -1.1     -0.2          -0.2
 
  1995         -1.7      1.4     -0.3      1.6      0.5     -0.8
                0.0      0.0      1.0     -0.9     -1.7      2.2           0.1
 
  1996          1.1     -2.3      1.2      0.4     -0.6      3.9
               -7.1      3.6     -3.2      1.6      1.9      1.0           0.1
 
  1997          0.2      1.7      3.1     -6.5     -1.5      0.8
                0.9      0.2     -0.3     -0.1     -1.5     -0.4          -0.3
 
  1998         -0.4      1.3      1.7     -2.3     -0.9      1.2
               -1.5      1.0      0.8     -0.1      0.6     -0.5           0.1
 
  1999          0.1     -3.7      3.5     -1.1      2.0     -1.1
               -0.3      0.3     -2.4      0.0      0.3     -0.4          -0.2
 
  2000         -0.1     -0.3     -1.0      4.2     -1.2     -0.6
                0.2     -1.8      1.4     -0.4     -0.4      4.1           0.3
 
  2001         -3.8      4.8     -3.3     -2.9      1.3     -1.5
                0.9     -1.0     -0.6      2.6      0.6     -2.0          -0.4
 
  2002          1.9     -1.1      1.1     -0.4     -2.1      2.5
                0.6     -3.2      4.5     -1.6     -1.6     -0.1           0.1
 
  2003         -0.3      0.0      0.1     -0.3     -1.9      5.6
               -3.7      1.5     -0.2     -0.2      0.9     -0.2           0.1
 
  2004          0.0      0.1     -0.7      2.6     -0.9     -2.2
                0.5      0.2     -0.8     -1.2      0.9     -0.9          -0.2
 
  2005          2.3     -0.7     -0.1      0.0      0.5      0.3
               -1.7      2.4     -0.1     -0.4     -1.7      0.7           0.1
 
  2006         -1.5      0.7     -0.4      0.0      0.4     -0.1
               -0.7     -1.0     -1.9      3.5     -0.6      0.0          -0.1
 
  2007          0.9      1.5     -1.6      0.9     -0.3     -0.8
               -0.4      0.8     -0.5      0.8     -2.1      3.2           0.2
 
  2008          2.3     -5.3      0.1      0.1     -0.7      0.4
                1.2     -3.2      1.3     -0.9      0.9     -0.4          -0.3
 
  2009          0.6      1.0     -0.4     -0.6      0.7      0.1
               -0.8      1.0      0.0     -0.2      1.0     -0.1           0.2
 
  2010         -0.6     -1.2      3.9     -4.9      0.9      1.9
               -0.5      2.1     -1.6     -0.7      1.4     -2.7          -0.2
 
  2011          1.5     -0.4     -5.3      1.8      1.8     -0.5
                0.8      0.1      0.6      0.9     -1.1      1.1           0.1
 
  2012         -1.8      0.6     -1.0      1.3      3.2     -2.6
                0.6      0.5     -2.4      1.5     -0.1     -0.1           0.0
 
  2013          0.9      2.6     -0.4     -2.1      0.2     -1.4
                1.2     -1.0      2.9     -1.5     -0.5      0.5           0.1
 
  2014          1.1     -1.1      9.2    -12.8     -3.1      3.9
               -1.7                                                       -0.7
 
  AVGE          0.1      0.1      0.5     -0.9      0.2      0.4
               -0.4      0.1      0.0      0.1     -0.1      0.2

  Table Total-         8.16   Mean-       0.02   Std. Dev.-       1.83
                              Min -     -12.84        Max -       9.21
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  22, SERIES lev-jb

 E 7  Month-to-month percent change in final trend cycle (D12)
  From  1981.Feb to 2014.Jul
  Observations        402
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981                   0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1
                0.1      0.2      0.2      0.3      0.3      0.4           0.2
 
  1982          0.4      0.4      0.3      0.3      0.2      0.1
                0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0           0.1
 
  1983          0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.1      0.1
                0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1           0.1
 
  1984          0.1      0.0      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1
                0.1      0.1      0.2      0.2      0.1      0.1           0.1
 
  1985          0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.1      0.1           0.0
 
  1986          0.1      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2
                0.2      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1           0.1
 
  1987          0.1      0.1      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2
                0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3           0.2
 
  1988          0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.2      0.2
                0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0     -0.1     -0.1           0.1
 
  1989         -0.1     -0.1      0.0      0.0      0.1      0.2
                0.3      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.3           0.2
 
  1990          0.3      0.2      0.1      0.0     -0.1     -0.1
               -0.1     -0.1      0.0      0.0      0.1      0.2           0.0
 
  1991          0.2      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.2      0.2
                0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1           0.2
 
  1992          0.1      0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0
                0.0     -0.1     -0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0           0.0
 
  1993          0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1      0.0      0.0
                0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0           0.0
 
  1994          0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.2
               -0.2     -0.2     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1          -0.1
 
  1995          0.0      0.0      0.1      0.1      0.2      0.2
                0.2      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0           0.1
 
  1996          0.0      0.0      0.0     -0.1     -0.1      0.0
                0.0      0.0      0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0           0.0
 
  1997          0.0      0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.2
               -0.2     -0.2     -0.2     -0.2     -0.2     -0.2          -0.2
 
  1998         -0.2     -0.2     -0.2     -0.1      0.0      0.1
                0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1           0.0
 
  1999          0.1      0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.3
               -0.4     -0.4     -0.4     -0.4     -0.3     -0.2          -0.2
 
  2000         -0.1      0.0      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1
                0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0     -0.1     -0.1           0.0
 
  2001         -0.2     -0.2     -0.2     -0.3     -0.3     -0.2
               -0.2     -0.1      0.0      0.1      0.2      0.2          -0.1
 
  2002          0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.1      0.1
                0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.3     -0.3           0.0
 
  2003         -0.3     -0.2     -0.2     -0.1      0.0      0.1
                0.2      0.2      0.3      0.2      0.2      0.2           0.1
 
  2004          0.1      0.1      0.0     -0.1     -0.2     -0.2
               -0.3     -0.3     -0.2     -0.2     -0.1      0.0          -0.1
 
  2005          0.1      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.1
                0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.3     -0.3           0.0
 
  2006         -0.3     -0.3     -0.3     -0.2     -0.2     -0.1
               -0.1      0.0      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.2          -0.1
 
  2007          0.2      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.1      0.0
                0.0      0.0     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.2           0.0
 
  2008         -0.2     -0.3     -0.3     -0.3     -0.3     -0.3
               -0.2     -0.2     -0.1      0.0      0.0      0.1          -0.2
 
  2009          0.1      0.1      0.1      0.2      0.2      0.2
                0.1      0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0           0.1
 
  2010          0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0     -0.1           0.0
 
  2011         -0.1     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1     -0.1
               -0.1     -0.1     -0.1     -0.2     -0.1     -0.1          -0.1
 
  2012         -0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.1      0.1
                0.1      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.1           0.1
 
  2013          0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                0.0      0.0      0.0      0.1      0.1      0.1           0.0
 
  2014          0.1      0.1     -5.5      0.0      0.0      0.0
                0.0                                                       -0.8
 
  AVGE          0.0      0.0     -0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0
                0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0

  Table Total-         2.74   Mean-       0.01   Std. Dev.-       0.32
                              Min -      -5.54        Max -       0.41
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  23, SERIES lev-jb

 E 8  Month-to-month percent change in original series adjusted for calendar factors (A18)
  From  1981.Feb to 2014.Jul
  Observations        402
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981                   1.6     12.1     -2.0    -10.6      3.7
                5.6     -4.0     -5.4     -0.4      3.4     45.3           4.5
 
  1982        -32.1      4.0     12.5     -4.4     -8.1      4.9
                3.6     -4.5     -6.4      3.6      0.6     44.2           1.5
 
  1983        -30.8      0.9     11.4     -2.6    -10.5      4.3
                5.9     -4.4     -6.6      3.6      1.4     44.7           1.4
 
  1984        -33.7      4.9      9.4     -0.6    -10.1      3.2
                6.0     -5.2     -3.5      1.4      0.1     44.8           1.4
 
  1985        -31.6      1.8     12.9     -2.0    -11.3      3.0
                6.2     -5.3     -3.6      1.8      1.5     42.1           1.3
 
  1986        -31.3      1.6     11.3     -0.5    -10.3      3.5
                5.9     -3.7     -6.1      3.1      0.7     37.8           1.0
 
  1987        -29.2      2.8     11.2     -2.0     -8.5      1.3
                7.5     -4.7     -5.5      3.7      0.6     38.1           1.3
 
  1988        -27.9      1.3     11.0     -1.3     -7.7     -0.7
                9.1     -5.2     -4.6      0.8      0.7     40.0           1.3
 
  1989        -29.1      1.4     16.6     -7.6     -9.7      3.0
                8.0     -6.6     -2.5      1.6      2.5     38.7           1.4
 
  1990        -28.7      1.4     10.6     -1.5     -9.7      1.5
                7.3     -6.1     -3.1      0.5     -1.1     42.3           1.1
 
  1991        -27.8      1.1     11.9     -3.1     -9.3      6.2
                4.3     -4.9     -4.5      1.6     -0.1     36.1           0.9
 
  1992        -25.9      1.7      9.5     -4.1     -7.1      0.7
                8.1     -5.5     -3.2      0.0      0.7     34.6           0.8
 
  1993        -26.7      4.4     10.6     -3.7    -10.2      1.3
                6.7     -4.4     -3.8      1.9      1.8     33.3           0.9
 
  1994        -25.1      1.1      6.1      0.3    -11.1      2.0
                8.0     -4.8     -1.5     -0.6     -0.4     32.5           0.5
 
  1995        -25.6      2.7      8.3      0.7    -10.4      0.9
                7.4     -3.8     -1.5     -1.4     -1.1     34.3           0.9
 
  1996        -22.7     -1.1     10.0     -0.4    -11.4      5.8
               -0.5      0.0     -5.8      1.1      2.5     31.1           0.7
 
  1997        -22.4      2.7     12.2     -7.3    -12.1      2.5
                7.8     -3.1     -3.0     -0.4     -1.0     27.6           0.3
 
  1998        -21.8      2.3     10.8     -3.4    -11.1      2.5
                5.2     -2.4     -2.1      0.3      1.1     25.5           0.6
 
  1999        -20.2     -2.7     12.6     -2.3     -8.3     -0.1
                6.3     -3.3     -5.0      1.0      0.5     23.7           0.2
 
  2000        -19.2      0.7      7.6      3.1    -11.0      0.0
                6.6     -5.3     -1.1      1.1     -0.5     27.4           0.8
 
  2001        -21.0      5.7      4.7     -3.3     -8.9     -1.2
                6.9     -4.3     -2.7      4.2      0.4     18.4          -0.1
 
  2002        -15.0     -0.3      9.0     -0.2    -12.1      2.5
                6.0     -5.7      2.4     -0.1     -2.0     19.3           0.3
 
  2003        -15.7      0.7      7.2      0.7    -12.1      5.4
                0.6     -0.3     -1.9      1.1      0.4     18.2           0.4
 
  2004        -14.6      1.0      5.6      4.5    -11.3     -2.6
                3.9     -0.6     -2.5      0.0      0.4     16.8           0.1
 
  2005        -12.0      0.2      5.5      2.7    -10.0     -0.3
                0.7      2.2     -1.7      0.7     -1.9     18.1           0.4
 
  2006        -15.0      1.6      4.8      2.9    -10.1     -0.6
                1.0     -0.7     -3.4      4.7     -0.4     16.8           0.1
 
  2007        -12.8      2.3      3.5      3.9    -10.7     -1.0
                0.8      1.1     -1.9      2.0     -1.4     19.8           0.5
 
  2008        -11.4     -4.6      5.5      2.7    -11.0      0.5
                2.1     -2.7     -0.1      0.3      2.0     15.1          -0.1
 
  2009        -12.8      1.4      5.3      1.7     -9.7      0.4
                0.1      1.6     -1.5      1.0      2.4     14.8           0.4
 
  2010        -13.5     -0.8     10.2     -3.1     -9.5      2.1
                0.5      2.7     -3.2      0.6      2.5     11.7           0.0
 
  2011        -11.4     -0.1      0.8      3.4     -8.7     -0.3
                1.9      0.5     -1.0      2.3     -0.4     16.0           0.3
 
  2012        -13.9      0.9      5.6      2.6     -7.5     -2.6
                1.9      0.8     -3.8      3.1      0.0     14.9           0.2
 
  2013        -11.3      2.9      6.4     -0.9    -10.4     -1.4
                2.4     -0.8      1.6      0.1     -0.7     15.8           0.3
 
  2014        -10.9     -0.7     16.7    -11.9    -13.5      4.0
               -0.5                                                       -2.4
 
  AVGE        -21.3      1.3      9.1     -1.2    -10.1      1.6
                4.5     -2.8     -3.0      1.3      0.5     28.5

  Table Total-       282.53   Mean-       0.70   Std. Dev.-     100.01
                              Min -     -33.74        Max -      45.34
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  24, SERIES lev-jb

 E 18  Final adjustment ratios
  From  1981.Jan to 2014.Jul
  Observations        403
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1981         92.7     95.1    106.0    103.6     92.8     96.1
              101.4     96.8     91.3     93.7     94.3    136.1         100.0
 
  1982         92.7     95.0    106.0    103.7     92.8     96.0
              101.4     96.7     91.5     93.7     94.4    136.0         100.0
 
  1983         92.7     95.0    105.8    103.7     92.8     96.0
              101.5     96.7     91.6     93.8     94.5    135.8         100.0
 
  1984         92.7     94.9    105.7    103.7     92.9     95.9
              101.6     96.7     91.8     94.0     94.7    135.4         100.0
 
  1985         92.8     94.8    105.5    103.7     93.0     95.7
              101.7     96.8     91.9     94.1     94.8    134.8         100.0
 
  1986         93.0     94.8    105.4    103.6     93.2     95.5
              101.9     96.8     92.1     94.1     94.9    134.2         100.0
 
  1987         93.2     94.9    105.4    103.6     93.3     95.4
              102.1     96.8     92.3     94.1     95.0    133.4         100.0
 
  1988         93.5     95.0    105.5    103.4     93.4     95.3
              102.4     96.8     92.4     94.1     95.0    132.5          99.9
 
  1989         93.9     95.3    105.6    103.3     93.4     95.2
              102.5     96.8     92.7     94.0     94.9    131.5          99.9
 
  1990         94.3     95.6    105.8    103.2     93.4     95.1
              102.5     96.7     93.0     94.0     95.0    130.5          99.9
 
  1991         94.7     96.0    105.7    103.3     93.4     95.0
              102.4     96.8     93.4     94.2     95.0    129.5         100.0
 
  1992         94.9     96.4    105.6    103.5     93.4     94.9
              102.2     96.9     93.8     94.4     95.1    128.4         100.0
 
  1993         95.2     96.7    105.4    103.8     93.3     94.8
              101.9     97.1     94.3     94.5     95.1    127.4         100.0
 
  1994         95.4     96.8    105.2    104.1     93.2     94.6
              101.7     97.4     94.8     94.6     95.2    126.4         100.0
 
  1995         95.7     96.9    105.2    104.3     93.0     94.6
              101.6     97.6     95.2     94.7     95.4    125.3         100.0
 
  1996         95.8     96.9    105.4    104.4     93.0     94.7
              101.4     97.9     95.4     94.9     95.5    124.0          99.9
 
  1997         96.0     97.0    105.5    104.5     93.3     94.8
              101.3     98.0     95.4     95.1     95.7    122.6          99.9
 
  1998         96.2     97.1    105.7    104.5     93.7     94.9
              101.3     98.0     95.2     95.5     95.9    121.0          99.9
 
  1999         96.4     97.4    105.9    104.6     94.1     95.0
              101.3     97.7     95.1     96.0     96.2    119.5          99.9
 
  2000         96.6     97.6    106.0    104.8     94.4     95.1
              101.1     97.5     95.1     96.5     96.5    118.0          99.9
 
  2001         96.9     97.8    105.8    105.3     94.8     95.1
              100.7     97.4     95.3     96.8     96.6    116.7          99.9
 
  2002         97.3     98.0    105.6    105.8     95.1     95.0
              100.1     97.5     95.6     97.0     96.7    115.5          99.9
 
  2003         97.6     98.3    105.3    106.4     95.3     95.1
               99.3     97.6     95.9     97.2     96.7    114.5          99.9
 
  2004         97.9     98.7    104.9    106.9     95.7     95.3
               98.5     97.8     96.1     97.2     96.8    114.0         100.0
 
  2005         98.0     98.9    104.5    107.3     96.0     95.5
               97.8     97.7     96.1     97.2     97.0    113.8         100.0
 
  2006         98.2     99.1    104.3    107.4     96.2     95.7
               97.3     97.5     96.1     97.2     97.4    113.7         100.0
 
  2007         98.3     99.1    104.2    107.3     96.1     95.9
               97.1     97.4     96.0     97.1     97.9    113.6         100.0
 
  2008         98.4     99.1    104.4    107.1     96.0     96.1
               96.9     97.4     96.0     97.2     98.3    113.5         100.0
 
  2009         98.4     98.9    104.5    107.0     95.8     96.1
               97.0     97.5     95.9     97.2     98.5    113.2         100.0
 
  2010         98.5     98.8    104.8    106.8     95.8     96.0
               97.0     97.6     96.0     97.3     98.3    112.9         100.0
 
  2011         98.5     98.8    105.2    106.8     95.8     96.0
               97.1     97.5     96.0     97.3     98.0    112.4         100.0
 
  2012         98.6     99.0    105.6    107.0     95.9     95.9
               97.0     97.4     96.0     97.5     97.6    112.3         100.0
 
  2013         98.7     99.1    105.8    107.1     95.8     95.8
               97.0     97.2     96.0     97.5     97.3    112.1         100.0
 
  2014         98.9     99.3    106.1    107.2     95.7     95.8
               97.0                                                      100.0
 
  AVGE         96.0     97.1    105.4    105.1     94.3     95.4
              100.2     97.3     94.4     95.6     96.1    123.0

  Table Total-     40286.52   Mean-      99.97   Std. Dev.-       8.31
                              Min -      91.31        Max -     136.08

 E 18.A  Final adjustment ratio forecasts
  From  2014.Aug to 2015.Jul
  Observations         12
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun 
               Jul      Aug      Sep      Oct      Nov      Dec         AVGE  
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2014                                                          
                        97.1     96.0     97.5     97.1    112.1         100.0
 
  2015         98.9     99.3    106.3    107.3     95.6     95.8
               96.9                                                      100.0
 
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  25, SERIES lev-jb


 F 2. Summary Measures
   F 2.A: Average percent change without regard to sign over the
          indicated span
      Span
       in      A1     D11     D13     D12     D10      A2     D18      F1
     months    O      CI       I       C       S       P     TD&H     mcd
        1    7.39    1.14    1.14    0.13    7.10    0.11    0.00    0.22
        2    8.91    1.20    1.16    0.25    8.81    0.14    0.00    0.40
        3    7.21    1.25    1.17    0.37    7.00    0.17    0.00    0.55
        4    6.75    1.41    1.29    0.48    6.36    0.20    0.00    0.67
        5    8.37    1.42    1.22    0.59    8.05    0.18    0.00    0.77
        6    9.24    1.45    1.14    0.69    9.02    0.19    0.00    0.85
        7    8.61    1.43    1.10    0.78    8.33    0.19    0.00    0.91
        8    6.56    1.37    0.99    0.86    6.14    0.20    0.00    0.97
        9    6.97    1.50    1.04    0.93    6.60    0.20    0.00    1.03
       10    9.04    1.56    1.09    0.99    8.80    0.20    0.00    1.10
       11    7.55    1.60    1.10    1.05    7.21    0.20    0.00    1.17
       12    1.75    1.75    1.25    1.10    0.20    0.20    0.00    1.24

      Span
       in     E1      E2      E3
     months  Mod.O   Mod.CI  Mod.I
        1    7.29    0.81    0.80
        2    8.92    0.89    0.84
        3    7.15    0.94    0.86
        4    6.56    1.08    0.92
        5    8.23    1.12    0.88
        6    9.18    1.13    0.81
        7    8.48    1.17    0.77
        8    6.42    1.18    0.72
        9    6.96    1.28    0.75
       10    9.05    1.34    0.80
       11    7.51    1.36    0.77
       12    1.48    1.48    0.90

   F 2.B: Relative contributions to the variance of the percent change
          in the components of the original series
      Span
       in     E3     D12     D10      A2     D18            RATIO
     months   I       C       S       P     TD&H    TOTAL   (X100)
        1    1.26    0.03   98.68    0.02    0.00  100.00   96.29
        2    0.91    0.08   98.98    0.03    0.00  100.00   98.45
        3    1.48    0.27   98.19    0.06    0.00  100.00   97.44
        4    2.03    0.56   97.31    0.09    0.00  100.00   96.65
        5    1.16    0.53   98.26    0.05    0.00  100.00   97.40
        6    0.79    0.57   98.60    0.04    0.00  100.00   98.05
        7    0.83    0.85   98.26    0.05    0.00  100.00   98.29
        8    1.32    1.89   96.69    0.10    0.00  100.00   94.59
        9    1.24    1.92   96.75    0.09    0.00  100.00   92.88
       10    0.81    1.25   97.90    0.05    0.00  100.00   96.58
       11    1.11    2.06   96.76    0.07    0.00  100.00   95.10
       12   38.27   57.92    1.88    1.93    0.00  100.00   95.62

   F 2.C: Average percent change with regard to sign and standard
          deviation over indicated span
      Span        A1               D13              D12
       in          O                I                C
     months   Avg.    S.D.     Avg.    S.D.     Avg.    S.D.
        1     0.71   11.87     0.01    1.58     0.02    0.16
        2     0.83   12.69     0.01    1.56     0.04    0.31
        3     0.64   11.56     0.01    1.58     0.06    0.46
        4     0.59   10.53     0.01    1.73     0.08    0.60
        5     0.81   11.52     0.01    1.63     0.11    0.73
        6     0.95   12.85     0.01    1.57     0.13    0.85
        7     0.89   12.54     0.01    1.55     0.15    0.96
        8     0.72    9.78     0.01    1.39     0.17    1.06
        9     0.80   10.16     0.00    1.47     0.19    1.15
       10     1.07   12.69     0.01    1.50     0.20    1.23
       11     1.03   12.28     0.02    1.53     0.22    1.29
       12     0.27    2.19     0.02    1.67     0.24    1.35

      Span        D10              D11               F1
       in          S                CI              mcd
     months   Avg.    S.D.     Avg.    S.D.     Avg.    S.D.
        1     0.68   11.72     0.03    1.59     0.02    0.28
        2     0.77   12.56     0.05    1.60     0.03    0.52
        3     0.57   11.41     0.07    1.66     0.06    0.71
        4     0.48   10.25     0.09    1.86     0.08    0.86
        5     0.68   11.25     0.11    1.82     0.10    0.99
        6     0.83   12.74     0.13    1.83     0.12    1.09
        7     0.73   12.30     0.16    1.87     0.14    1.17
        8     0.53    9.46     0.17    1.80     0.16    1.24
        9     0.61    9.96     0.19    1.90     0.18    1.30
       10     0.85   12.48     0.22    1.97     0.20    1.37
       11     0.79   12.01     0.24    2.04     0.21    1.44
       12     0.01    0.29     0.26    2.18     0.23    1.51

   F 2.D: Average duration of run        CI      I       C      mcd
                                        1.56    1.53   11.17    4.30


   F 2.E: I/C Ratio for months span

      SPAN         1       2       3       4       5       6
      I/C        9.07    4.67    3.19    2.67    2.07    1.66

      SPAN         7       8       9      10      11      12
      I/C        1.41    1.16    1.12    1.10    1.04    1.13

         months for cyclical dominance:      12


   F 2.F: Relative contribution of the components to the stationary
          portion of the variance in the original series

                   I       C       S       P     TD&H   Total
                  0.71   21.69   75.52    0.95    0.00   98.87


   F 2.G: The autocorrelation of the irregulars for spans 1 to 14

      SPAN         1       2       3       4       5       6       7
      ACF       -0.05   -0.03   -0.05   -0.26   -0.12   -0.03    0.00

      SPAN         8       9      10      11      12      13      14
      ACF        0.19    0.11    0.06    0.02   -0.17    0.00    0.01

   F 2.H: The final I/C Ratio from Table D12:        3.50
          The final I/S Ratio from Table D10:        3.38

   F 2.I:                                                    Statistic   Prob.
                                                                         level
    F-test for stable seasonality from Table B 1.        :    218.912    0.00%
    F-test for stable seasonality from Table D 8.        :    232.348    0.00%
    Kruskal-Wallis Chi Squared test
                  for stable seasonality from Table D 8. :    297.050    0.00%
    F-test for moving seasonality from Table D 8.        :      3.224    0.00%

        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  27, SERIES lev-jb


 F 3. Monitoring and Quality Assessment Statistics
       All the measures below are in the range from 0 to 3 with an 
       acceptance region from 0 to 1.

    1. The relative contribution of the irregular over three       M1  = 0.148
       months span (from Table F 2.B).


    2. The relative contribution of the irregular component        M2  = 0.072
       to the stationary portion of the variance (from Table 
       F 2.F).

    3. The amount of month to month change in the irregular        M3  = 1.251
       component as compared to the amount of month to month
       change in the trend-cycle (from Table F2.H).

    4. The amount of autocorrelation in the irregular as           M4  = 0.245
       described by the average duration of run (Table F 2.D).


    5. The number of months it takes the change in the trend-      M5  = 3.000
       cycle to surpass the amount of change in the irregular
       (from Table F 2.E).

    6. The amount of year to year change in the irregular as       M6  = 0.246
       compared to the amount of year to year change in the
       seasonal (from Table F 2.H).

    7. The amount of moving seasonality present relative to        M7  = 0.189
       the amount of stable seasonality (from Table F 2.I).


    8. The size of the fluctuations in the seasonal component      M8  = 0.250
       throughout the whole series.


    9. The average linear movement in the seasonal component       M9  = 0.178
       throughout the whole series.


   10. Same as 8, calculated for recent years only.                M10 = 0.147



   11. Same as 9, calculated for recent years only.                M11 = 0.114


          *** ACCEPTED *** at the level   0.60

          *** Check the  2 above measures which failed.

          *** Q (without M2) =  0.66  ACCEPTED.


        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  28, SERIES lev-jb


  Visually significant residual trading day peaks have been
  found in the spectral plots of the following series starting in 2006.Aug:

          differenced, transformed seasonally adjusted series (Table E2) (1 Trading Day peak(s))

          Modified irregular component (Table E3) (1 Trading Day peak(s))

        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  29, SERIES lev-jb
 G 0  10*LOG(SPECTRUM) of the differenced, transformed Prior Adjusted Series
      (Table B1).  Spectrum estimated from 2006.Aug to 2014.Jul.
 ++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
     -15.62I                              S                              I    -15.62
           I                              S                             SI
           I                              S                             SI
           I                              S                             SI
     -18.69I                              S         S                   SI    -18.69
           I                              S         S                   SI
           I                              S         S                   SI
           I                              S         S                   SI
     -21.77I                              S         S                   SI    -21.77
           I                              S         S                   SI
           I                              S         S                   SI
           I                              S         S                   SI
     -24.84I                              S         S         S         SI    -24.84
           I                              S         S         S         SI
           I          S                   S         S         S         SI
           I          S                   S         S         S         SI
     -27.92I          S                   S*        S         S         SI    -27.92
           I          S                   S*        S*        S*       *SI
           I          S                  *S*        S*        S*       *SI
           I          S                  *S*       *S*        S*       *SI
     -30.99I          S                  *S*       *S*        S*       *SI    -30.99
           I          S                  *S*       *S*        S*       *SI
           I          S                  *S*      **S*       *S*       *SI
           I          S                  *S*     ***S*       *S*      **SI
     -34.07I          S                  *S**    ***S*       *S*T     **SI    -34.07
           I          S*                **S**    ***S*       *S*T    ***SI
           I         *S*                **S**    ***S*T      *S*T    ***SI
           I         *S*                **S**   ****S*T      *S*T*  ****SI
     -37.14I         *S*        S*     ***S**   ****S*T     **S*T*******SI    -37.14
           I         *S*        S*     ***S***  ****S*T*    **S*T*******SI
           I         *S*        S*    ****S*** *****S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I         *S*        S*    ****S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -40.22I         *S*        S*    ****S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -40.22
           I         *S**       S*    ****S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I         *S**       S*   *****S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I         *S**       S*   *****S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -43.29I         *S***      S**  *****S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -43.29
           I        **S****     S** ******S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I        **S*****   *S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I        **S*****   *S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -46.36I        **S******  *S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -46.36
           I   *    **S******  *S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   *    **S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   **  ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -49.44I   **  ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -49.44
           I   **  ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   *******S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -52.51I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -52.51
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I *********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -55.59I**********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -55.59
 ++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
            S=SEASONAL FREQUENCIES, T=TRADING DAY FREQUENCIES
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  30, SERIES lev-jb
 G 1  10*LOG(SPECTRUM) of the differenced, transformed Seasonally Adjusted 
      Data (Table E2).  Spectrum estimated from 2006.Aug to 2014.Jul.
 ++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
     -36.02I                                                        *    I    -36.02
           I                                                        *    I
           I                                                        *    I
           I                                                        *    I
     -38.22I                                                        *    I    -38.22
           I                                   *                T   *    I
           I                                   *                T   *    I
           I                                   *                T   *    I
     -40.42I                                   *                T   *    I    -40.42
           I                                   *                T   *    I
           I                                   *                T   *    I
           I                                  **           *    T   *    I
     -42.62I                                  **           *    T   *    I    -42.62
           I                *                 **           *    T* **    I
           I                *                 **       *  **    T* ***   I
           I                *                 **       *  **    T* ***   I
     -44.83I               **                 **      T*  **    T* ***   I    -44.83
           I               **                 **      T*  **    T* ***   I
           I               **                ***      T*  **   *T*****   I
           I               **                ****     T*  **   *T*****   I
     -47.03I               ***               ****     T*****   *T*****   I    -47.03
           I               ***               ****     T******  *T*****   I
           I               ***              *****    *T******  *T*****   I
           I               ***              *****    *T******  *T******  I
     -49.23I               ***              *****    *T****** S*T******  I    -49.23
           I   *          ****              *****   S*T*******S*T******  I
           I   *          *****    *   *   *******  S*T*******S*T******  I
           I   *          *****    ** **   ******* *S*T*******S*T******* I
     -51.43I   *         ******    ** **   *********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -51.43
           I   *        *******    ******  *********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   *       ********    ****** S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   *       *********  ********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -53.63I   *       *********  ********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -53.63
           I   **      *********  ********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   **   * S*********  ********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   **   **S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -55.84I   **  ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -55.84
           I   **  ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   **  ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   ** ****S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -58.04I   *******S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -58.04
           I   *******S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I   *******S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -60.24I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -60.24
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -62.44I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -62.44
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I *********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I *********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -64.65I**********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -64.65
 ++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
            S=SEASONAL FREQUENCIES, T=TRADING DAY FREQUENCIES
        Index of Consumption Expenditure Level            PAGE  31, SERIES lev-jb
 G 2  10*LOG(SPECTRUM) of the Modified Irregular (Table E3).  
      Spectrum estimated from 2006.Aug to 2014.Jul.
 ++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
     -33.51I               *                                             I    -33.51
           I               *                                             I
           I               *                                        *    I
           I               *                                        *    I
     -35.22I               *                                        *    I    -35.22
           I               **                  *                    *    I
           I               **                  *                    *    I
           I               **                  *                    *    I
     -36.94I               **                  *                    *    I    -36.94
           I               **                  *                    *    I
           I               **                  *                T   *    I
           I               **                 **                T   *    I
     -38.65I               ***                **                T   *    I    -38.65
           I               ***                **                T   *    I
           I              ****                **                T   *    I
           I            * ****                **                T   *    I
     -40.37I            * ****                **           *    T   *    I    -40.37
           I            * ****                **           *    T   *    I
           I            *******               **          **    T   *    I
           I            *******               **          **    T* **    I
     -42.09I           ********              ***          **    T* **    I    -42.09
           I           ********              ***      T*  **    T* **    I
           I           ********              ***      T*  **    T* ***   I
           I           ********              ***      T*  **    T* ***   I
     -43.80I           ********              ****     T*  **    T* ***   I    -43.80
           I           ********             *****     T*  **   *T*****   I
           I        *  ********             *****     T* ***   *T*****   I
           I        *  *********       *    *****    *T*****   *T*****   I
     -45.52I        * S*********      **    *****    *T******  *T*****   I    -45.52
           I        * S*********   *  **    *****    *T******  *T*****   I
           I        **S*********   *****   ******    *T******  *T*****   I
           I        **S*********  ******   ******    *T******  *T*****   I
     -47.23I   *    **S*********  *******  ******   S*T****** S*T*****   I    -47.23
           I   *   ***S*********S *******  *******  S*T*******S*T*****   I
           I   *   ***S*********S******** S*******  S*T*******S*T******  I
           I   *   ***S*********S*********S******* *S*T*******S*T******  I
     -48.95I   *   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T******  I    -48.95
           I   *   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T******  I
           I  **   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T******  I
           I  **   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T******* I
     -50.67I  **   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T******* I    -50.67
           I  **   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  **   ***S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  *** ****S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -52.38I  *** ****S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -52.38
           I  *** ****S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -54.10I  ********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -54.10
           I *********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I *********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
           I *********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI
     -55.81I**********S*********S*********S*********S*T*******S*T*******SI    -55.81
 ++++++++++I+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++I
            S=SEASONAL FREQUENCIES, T=TRADING DAY FREQUENCIES

アプリケーション
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program https://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

参考文献
有田帝馬(2012).『入門季節調整』.東洋経済新報社.pp255